Market Roundup
- US jobless claims rise to 5-mos high (282k v 269k forecast), trend still favorable (4-wk avg+1.5k).
- Bank of England keeps rate/APP steady (vote: 8-1), points to new oil price fall, slower wage growth, sees UK inflation below 1% in H1 ’16.
- U.S. Senate approves short-term bill to keep gov’t running to Dec. 16.
- Wall St up, other markets steady ahead of Fed; oil slips.
- Gold falls as dollar rebounds on rate rise expectations, Crude oil near 7-year lows.
- Buba’s Weidmann: ECB asset-buying blurs line between fiscal and monetary policy.
- Mersch says ‘very large majority’ of ECB policymakers did not want more QE.
- SNB’s Zurbruegg: SNB considers variety of factors beyond ECB policy no upper limit to use balance sheet for monetary policy goals, Fed hike may relieve pressure off CHF.
- SNB’s Jordan: bank has no internal exchange rate threshold for CCY market intervention.
- BOE says no mechanical link between BOE policy and other central bank.
- UN cuts 2015 global economic growth forecast to 2.4 pct, sees 2.9% growth in ’16, 3.2% in 17.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
- –:– China New Yuan Loans* Nov forecast 700.0b, 513.6b-previous
- 21:30 New Zealand Manufacturing PMI*Nov -53.3-previous
- 21:45 New Zealand Food Price Index*Nov -1.20%-previous
- 02:00 Japan TR IPSOS PCSI Dec 41.9-previous
- 02:00 Australia TR IPSOS PCSI Dec -48.2-previous
- 02:00 China TR IPSOS PCSI Dec -66.2-previous
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
- No Significant Events
Currency SummariesEUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.0880 levels and currently trading at 1.0937 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.0966 and hit lows at 1.0920 levels. The dollar gained against euro on Thursday as markets refocused on expectations that Federal Reserve in the next meeting will raise the interest. The dollar regained part of Wednesday’s losses of more than 1 percent, which came after comments on Tuesday from the European Central Bank’s Ewald Nowotny that added to doubts about further policy divergence between the United States and Europe. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major rivals, rose 0.49 percent, to 97.,The euro fell 0.5 percent against the dollar to $1. dollar was flat against the yen . To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0993. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.0923 levels.GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.5100 and currently trading at 1.5150 levels. It reached session high at 1.5184 and hit low at 1.5121 levels. Sterling declined against dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England pointed to more barriers to economic growth and a recovery of inflation next year, again cooling expectations for the timing of a first rise in interest rates. The central bankers focused on a renewed fall in global oil prices and slower wage growth at home as they voted 8-1 again to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent. It added, however, that softer spending cuts announced last month by finance minister might help 2016 growth relative to previous forecasts. Sterling fell to $1.5147 from $1.5178 before the publication of the minutes and rate decision. It also trimmed the day’s gains against the euro, dipping to 72.29 pence per euro from 72.14 beforehand. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.5200. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.5112 levels.USD/CAD is supported at 1.3550 levels and is trading at 1.3638 levels. It has made session high at 1.3639 and hit lows at 1.3531 levels. The US dollar edged higher against the Canadian dollar on Thursday after U.S. crude oil prices hit a fresh low below $37 a barrel, contrasting with gains for fellow commodity currencies, the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Oil gave up earlier gains as persistent oversupply concerns offset a surprise fall in U.S. crude inventories after 10 weekly rises. U.S. crude prices were down 0.70 percent to $36.90 a barrel, while Brent crude lost 0.22 percent to $40. the data front ,Canadian industrial production capacity climbed 0.6 percentage points to 82.0 percent in the third quarter of 2015, close to expectations, following two consecutive quarterly declines. The currency’s strongest level of the session was C$1.3533, while its weakest level was C$1.3627. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3641. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.3595 levels.USD/JPY is supported at 121.00 levels and is trading at 121 .62 levels. It has made session high at 121.66 and hit lows at 121.22 levels. Dollar edged higher against Japanese yen on Thursday after data showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to a five-month high last week, but this likely does not signal a deterioration in the labor market as the underlying trend remained consistent with tightening conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 282,000 for the week ended Dec. 5, the highest level since early July, the Labor Department said. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, rose only 1,500 to 270,750 last week. Meanwhile,the Fed is widely expected to increase benchmark rates for the first time in almost a decade on Dec. 16, which could drive investments away from emerging markets. However, the bank is expected to hike rates slowly thereafter. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 119.48. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 118.57 levels. Equities RecapEuropean shares ended slightly lower on Thursday after touching a two-month low, with retailers and tech firms under pressure even as commodity shares stabilised.UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed down 0.5 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.01 percent, Germany’s Dax ended uo by 0.1 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.1 percent.U.S. stocks climbed but other major world equity markets were little changed on Thursday ahead of a widely expected interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week, while the dollar rebounded from the previous day’s losses.Dow Jones closed down by 0.41 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.76 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 1.47 percent.Treasuries Recap U.S. long-dated Treasury debt yields edged lower on Thursday in thin trading, weighed by a slump in oil prices, which suggested that inflation would remain benign.The 30-year bond was down 4/32 in price to yield 2.967 percent, down from 2.977 percent on Wednesday.U.S. two-year notes meanwhile slipped 1/32, with a yield of 0.939 percent. Last week, two-year yields rose to a roughly 5-1/2 year high of 0.994 percent.U.S.
three-year notes, meanwhile, were down 1/32 in price to yield 1.244 percent, slightly above Wednesday’s 1.237 percent.Commodities RecapGold edged lower on Thursday and was vulnerable to further weakness as the dollar rebounded and ahead of a widely anticipated U.S. interest rate rise next week.Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,071.96 an ounce at 2:44 p.m. EST (1944 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled down 0.4 percent at $1,072.50 an ounce.Crude oil prices fell 1 percent on Thursday to new lows since 2009 as traders looked beyond a drop in U.S. crude stockpiles to focus on a global supply glut, while a stronger dollar weighed on commodities.Brent settled down 38 cents at $39.73 a barrel. It extended its fall in post-settlement trade, striking a new February 2009 low of $39.46 by 4:00 p.m. EST (2100 GMT).WTI finished the session down 40 cents at $36.76. In post-settlement, it reached a near seven-year low at $36.38.
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