Market Roundup

  • Headline U.S. retail sales rise misses forecast but core up 0.4% as expected, and July revised higher.
  • U.S. industrial output falls more than expected in August, but previous month revised up; Empire State dismal at -14.67.
  • Moody’s: Brazil fiscal plan positive; central bank chief says fx fall helps manufacturers, inflation to fall in 2016.
  • Bond investors stand pat before Fed meeting – JPMorgan.
  • Emerging market stock allocations at all-time low with underweights at 34% – BAML poll

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)

  • 22:45 New Zealand Q2 Current Account q/q forecast -1.5 billion v 0.66 billion.
  • 22:45 New Zealand Q2 Current Account annual forecast -8.8 billion v 8.6 billion.
  • 00:30 Australia Aug Westpac Leading Index m/m previous 0.0%.
  • 05:00 Japan BOJ’s Monthly Economic Statement for September.
  • 06:00 Japan Aug Machine Tool Orders y/y previous -16.5%.

Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

  • BOJ Meeting – No change in policy expected – Y80trln annual Monetary Base Rise Target.

Currency SummariesEUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1225 levels and currently trading at 1.1268 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.1330 and hit lows at 1.1258 levels. Euro slipped lower against dollar on Tuesday, after data release from US market showed, U.S. consumer spending grew at a fairly healthy pace over the past two months, pointing to underlying strength in domestic demand that could strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates on Thursday. The Commerce Department said retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.4 percent in August after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in July. The so-called core retail sales, which correspond closely to the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, provided the latest sign of sturdy economic momentum and suggested the recent stock market sell-off had little immediate impact on U.S. household spending. Euro slipped 0.1 percent to $1.1302 retreating from $1.1328. Euro’s decline was initially fueled by a poor German ZEW survey that showed a slide in investor sentiment. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1289. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.1250 levels.GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.5325 levels and currently trading at 1.5337 levels. It reached session high at 1.5443 and dropped to session low at 1.5326 levels. Sterling fell against the dollar on Tuesday after data showed UK inflation fell back to zero in August, while investors eyed a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that could see interest rates hiked for the first time in almost a decade. Bank of England policymakers reckon inflation is to remain near zero for the next few months after dipping into negative territory for the first time in half a century earlier this year, keeping pressure off them to raise UK rates any time soon. Sterling fell 0.3 percent to $1.5381 after data showed subdued U.K. inflation in August, tempering the case for a rate increase by the Bank of England this year. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.5373. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.5325 levels.USD/JPY is supported around 119.95 levels and currently trading at 120.44 levels. It peaked to hit session high at 120.50 and made session lows at 119.46 levels. The yen declined against US dollar in Tuesday’s US session, after U.S. retail sales data lifted the dollar. August’s retail sales report showed fair strength in demand. August’s retail sales report showed fair strength in demand. The overall sales figure was up a modest 0.2% against the forecast of 0.3%. Earlier in the day the Bank of Japan refrained from further monetary stimulus, as expected, while the dollar hovered close to a three-week low against a basket of currencies a day before the Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintained his optimism that the Japanese economy will continue to recover moderately and that exports will rise gradually, although some traders had hoped for a surprise easing because of recent weak data. The Japanese yen traded between 120.47 and 119.73 in the US session. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 120.65. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 120.28 levels.  USD/CAD is supported at 1.3228 levels and is trading at 1.3244 levels. It has made session high at 1.3271 and lows at 1.3226 levels. The Canadian dollar was flat against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, paring earlier gains as the greenback trimmed losses following solid retail sales data, with investors reluctant to make big bets ahead of a decision on interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this week. The U.S. dollar move came after data showed that U.S. consumer spending appeared to grow at a fairly healthy pace in August, indicating robust domestic demand that could persuade the Fed to raise rates. The Fed is due to make its next rate decision Thursday and market participants on divided on whether the central bank will hike rates or delay such a move until 2016. The currency traded between C$1.3227 and C$1.3267 in the US session. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3270. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.3232 levels.Equities RecapEuropean shares closed higher on Tuesday, helped by a positive start at Wall Street, but volumes remained thin as investors were reluctant to make big bets before the Federal Reserve decides on Thursday whether to raise U.S. interest rates for the first time since 2006.UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.3 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.3 percent, Germany’s Dax ended up by 0.4 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.3 percent. U.S. stocks rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday after data showed healthy growth in consumer spending but did little to remove uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve will end seven years of near-zero interest rates when it meets this week. Dow Jones closed up by 1.41 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 1.29 percent Nasdaq finished the day up 1.13 percent.Treasuries RecapU.S. two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in over four years on Tuesday and long-dated yields hit their highest in nearly two months after a rise in German Bund yields triggered a jump higher in U.S. yields in thin trading volumes.U.S. two-year Treasury notes were last down 4/32 in price to yield 0.81 percent, from a yield of 0.73 percent late Monday.  Benchmark 10-year notes were last down 28/32 in price to yield 2.28 percent, from a yield of 2.18 percent late Monday.Commodities RecapGold eased back toward last week’s one-month low on Tuesday as U.S. retail sales data lifted the dollar index, and as caution ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates kept buyers on the sidelines.Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,103.20 an ounce at 2:55 p.m. EDT (1855 GMT), near Friday’s one-month low of $1,098.35. U.S. gold futures  for December delivery settled down 0.5 percent at $1,102.60 an ounce.U.S.Crude settled up more than 1 percent on Tuesday, buoyed by gains on Wall Street and higher gasoline prices, while Brent oil advanced less ahead of the expiry of its front-month contract, narrowing the transatlantic spread to the lowest in eight months.U.S. crude’s front-month settled up 59 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $44.59 a barrel. London-traded Brent, the global oil benchmark, settled up 26 cents at $46.63 a barrel as the October contract, which served as its front-month, expired. In Monday’s trade, Brent lost $1.77, or almost 4 percent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com