Market Roundup
- US Consumer Confidence Apr 95.2, (consensus 102.5, previous 101.4), 1-yr inflation expectations at 8-yr low
- United States Apr Dallas Fed services revenues increase to 14.6 vs previous 10.7
- United States Apr Rich Fed, services index decrease to 2 vs previous 12
- United States Apr Rich Fed comp. index increase to -3 vs previous -8
- United States Apr Rich Fed mfg shipments increase to -6 vs previous -13
- United States Feb Caseshiller 20 Yy Increase To +5.0 % (consensus 4.7 %, previous 4.6 %)
- Brazil Unemployment Rate Mar 6.2%, (consensus 6.15%, previous 5.90%)
- Iranian forces board Marshall Islands-flagged ship in Gulf, no US citizens aboard, Pentagon reviewing US defense obligations to Marshall Islands (Pentagon)
- BUBA’s Weidmann head says euro state insolvency possible without system collapse
- Eurogroup’s Dijsselbloem time is short for reaching agreement on Greece
- PBOC’s Ma Jun says no plans to buy local govt debt, has enough monetary policy tools at its disposal to sustain reasonable growth in liquidity and money supply
- Canada’s Poloz oil shock hitting faster not larger than expected, slack in labor market improving
- BOC’s Poloz says strength of U.S. economy has potential to surprise us on the upside
- BOC’s Poloz says inflation expectations well-anchored
- Obama says does not think that a strong US-Japan alliance should be seen as a provocation to China
- U.S., Japan say have made significant progress in bilateral trade talks, working toward swift conclusion to broader agreement on TPP pact -joint statement
- Bundesbank’S Weidmann says currency union has become more resistent to shocks
Economic Data Ahead
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Trade – Imports Mar (consensus 4.06b, previous 3.87b)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Trade Balance Mar (consensus 341.0m, previous 50.0m)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Trade Balance YY Mar (consensus -2.74b, previous -2.18b)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Trade – Exports Mar (consensus 4.40b, previous 3.92b)
- (2100 ET/ 0100 GMT) NewZealand NBNZ Business Outlook Apr (previous 35.80%)
- (2100 ET/ 0100 GMT) NewZealand NBNZ Own Activity Apr (previous 42.20%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX RecapEUR/USD: EUR/USD remains capped by 1.1000 and is now looking to stabilize below the psychological mark. The current strong upside will be put to test tomorrow, as the FOMC holds its monetary policy meeting. Ahead of FOMC in tomorrow’s data bucket are EMU’s credit figures, Business Climate, Economic Sentiment, preliminary inflation figures in Germany and the first revision of the US GDP Annualized during Q1 and PCE. Currently the pair is at 1.0971 with the next resistance at 1.1000 (psychological level) ahead of 1.1036 (high Apr 6) and finally 1.1062 (high Mar 18). Supports lie at 1.0860 (low Apr 28), 1.0819 (low Apr 27) and 1.0789 (low Apr 24). Option expiries Wednesday 29th April: 1.0900 (314M), 1.0920-25 (340M), 1.10 (305M) – NB 2.3BLN 1.10 Thurs
EUR/CHF is consolidating gains made in the European session where it peaked at 1.0483, the highest level in three weeks. The pair extended last week gains and is rising over 100 pips on the day. The rally has erased the bearsih outlook. EUR/CHF is about to post the strongest close since the beginning of the month, eyes 1.0500. Immediate resistance area could be located at 1.0495 (Apr 6 high) and above at 1.0530.
GBP/JPY initially bottomed at 180.70 in the European session after the release of the UK GDP Q1 estimate but then bounced sharply. The pair managed to break above 182.00 for the first time since early March. The pair peaked at 182.30, 7-week highs, and at the time of writing was trading at 182.20, 90 pips above yesterday’s closing price. Immediate resistance lies at 182.30 (daily high), 182.55 and 183.10/15 (March 11 high). On the flipside support lies at 181.90, 181.60 (Apr 27 high) and 181.15.
USD/MXN: A weak greenback across the board dragged USD/MXN lower. The Mexican peso reached the highest level in a week against the dollar. The pair broke 15.300 barrier and accelerated to the downside, bottomed at 15.189 and then bounced to the upside. At the time of writing the pair was trading around 15.255, headed toward the lowest close since April 17. Support levels might lie at 15.190 (daily lows), 15.109 (Apr 16, 17 low) and 15.075. While resistance could be located at 15.285 (Apr 23 low), 15.450 and 15.500.
USD/CAD printed fresh 3-month lows as the greenback weakened broadly following worse-than-expected confidence data. The pair fell over 100 pips throughout the day to a low of 1.2014 before finding support. US GDP figures and FOMC monetary policy on Wednesday, to drive USD moves over the next sessions. Supports are seen at 1.2000 (psychological level) and 1.1985 (Jan 9 low). Resistances could be found at 1.2100 and 1.2116 (daily high). Option expiries Wednesday 29th April: 121.00 (350M), 1.2200 (420M), 1.2245 (205M)
GBP/USD: Decline of the American dollar across the board offset lower than expected UK GDP data. Cable is consolidating important daily gains above 1.5300 today, headed toward the strongest close since March 3. The pound rose around 780 pips from from 4-year lows to 1-month highs in three weeks. The pair peaked during the U.S. session at 1.5338 and currently trades at 1.5315, up 0.55% for the day. Option expiries Wednesday 29th April: 1.54300 (200M)
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