Market Roundup
- US International Trade MM USD Mar -51.37b, (consensus -41.2b, previous -35.89b)
- US Markit Comp Final PMI Apr 57, (previous 57.4)
- US Markit Svcs PMI Final Apr 57.4, (previous 57.8)
- US ISM N-Mfg PMI Apr 57.8, (consensus 56.2, previous 56.5)
- US ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Apr 61.6, (consensus 57.9, previous 57.5)
- US ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Apr 56.7, (previous 56.6)
- US ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx Apr 50.1, (previous 52.4)
- Canada Trade Balance CAD Mar -3.02b, (consensus -0.85b, previous -2.22b)
- Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation Idx Apr 1.1%, (consensus 1.19%, previous 0.70%)
- Fonterra Dairy prices fall 3.5%, volumes increase 6.9% at auction
- USD broadly lower as EZ equities tumble, short EUR hedges unwound, US trade data misses
- U.S. on path to grow 0.8 pct in Q2, after a worse-than-expected deterioration of its trade gap in March (Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow)
- BOC’s Wilkins in sovereign bond mkts there are mixed signals on liquidity
- Greek official says IMF wants a haircut on Greek debt but EC against such debt relief
- Portuguese FinMin says EZ needs to make sure fiscal discipline & structural reforms are preserved
- Mexico CB poll sees YE ’15 growth at 2.88 v 2.95%, inflation at 3.07 v 3.11% in prev poll
Economic Data Ahead
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand HLFS Unemployment Rate Q1 (consensus 5.5%, previous 5.70%)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand HLFS Job Growth QQ Q1 (consensus 0.8%, previous 1.20%)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand HLFS Participation Rate Q1 (consensus 69.4%, previous 69.70%)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Labour Cost Index – QQ Q1 (consensus 0.4%, previous 0.50%)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Labour Cost Index – YY Q1 (consensus 2%, previous 1.80%)
- (2100 ET/ 0100 GMT) Australia HIA New Hm Sales m/m Mar (previous 1.10%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Retail Sales MM Mar (consensus 0.4%, previous 0.70%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Retail Trade Q1 (consensus 0.9%, previous 1.50%)
- (2145 ET/ 0145 GMT) China HSBC Services PMI Apr (previous 52.3)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/CHF: Dismal US trade data triggered broad dollar weakness dragging USD/CHF 180 pips lower during the last hours to print a 3-month low. The pair broke below the 0.9275 support area and fell to its lowest level since Feb 11 at 0.9237. Currently the pair is trading at 0.9250, down 0.9% on the day. Immediate supports are seen at 0.9237(daily low) and 0.9228 (Feb 11 low) ahead of 0.9200 (psychological level). While resistances on the upside are seen at 0.9411 (daily high) and 0.9449 (10-day SMA).
NZD/USD sees no bearish move, despite weak Fonterra results which see GDT PI -3.5% and WMP -1.8%. Markets probably expecting a much lower result as the Kiwi actually got a lift on the back of this data. NZD/USD steady and consolidated post spike from 0.7505 handle through to 0.7560. The pair is currently trading at 0.7563 with a high of 0.7578 and a low of 0.7489. Tonight in the NZ docket is the NZ unemployment results while the all important Nonfarm Payrolls numbers is due on Friday.
EUR/USD: Initial negative sentiment dragged EUR/USD spot to session lows in the 1.1060 area. However EUR/USD managed to rise back to clinch the 1.1200 figure as the greenback could no sustain the upside and pared gains. However the pair lost impetus in the 1.1200 neighbourhood, with EUR/USD now deflating to the 1.1190/85 band. At the time of writing the pair is up 0.36% at 1.1187 with the next resistance at 1.1225 (high May 4) ahead of 1.1291 (high May 1) and then 1.1380 (high Feb 26). Supports are at 1.1066 (low May 5), 1.1072 (low Apr 30) and finally 1.0959 (low Apr 29). Option expiries Wednesday 6 May: 1.1000 (546M), 1.1020-30 (892M), 1.1100 (283M), 1.1150-60 (800M)
USD/JPY: The greenback came under pressure following disappointing trade data which showed US deficit reached its highest level in nearly 2 decades. After hitting a 3-week peak of 120.50, USD/JPY broke below 120.00 and fell to a weekly low of 119.72. The pair found support at 100-hour SMA and is currently trading at 119.80, recording a 0.25% loss on the day. Supports are seen at 119.72, 119.60 (21-day SMA) and 119.27 (100-day SMA). On the other hand, immediate resistances could be found at 120.50 (daily high) and 120.83 (Apr 13 high). Option expiries Wednesday 6 May: 120.50 (653M), 121.00 (696M)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar has been bid across the board as oil is making highs for 2015 and has pierced the resistance set on 16th Dec 2014. USD/CAD is moving to the downside again and is in the process of retesting last week’s low. The pair is currently trading at the day’s low of 119.81 with the high for the day at 1.2133.
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