It's not just "angry blue collar white men," that are supporting Donald Trump. Having received a record number of votes in a Republican nomination campaign and winning in some of the richest and best-educated counties in the country adding to victories in his more traditional strongholds of white working-class neighborhoods, statistician Nate Silver found – after reviewing exit poll data in 23 states – that Trump voters' median household income was higher than the median in every state, sometimes by a wide margin; and that 44% of Trump voters have college undergraduate degrees, compared to 29% of US adults.
Coverage of 2016's bizarre primary season has painted the stereotypical Donald Trump supporter as white, working class, and uneducated. As Quartz' Corinne Purtill reports, Trump’s popularity with that demographic led some early pundits to dismiss his candidacy, as there simply aren’t enough such voters to propel a candidate to victory.
But an analysis of exit poll data by FiveThirtyEight finds that Trump voters have higher median household incomes than the typical American, and higher education levels too.
What’s more, Silver found that 44% of Trump voters have college undergraduate degrees, compared to 29% of US adults.
As Purtill concludes, explaining Trump’s popularity isn’t as simple as it once seemed.
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It appears, as Liberty Blitzkrieg blog's Mike Krieger details, the trump-Clinton battle is getting closer than many expected…
A Clinton match-up is highly likely to be an unmitigated electoral disaster, whereas a Sanders candidacy stands a far better chance. Every one of Clinton’s (considerable) weaknesses plays to every one of Trump’s strengths, whereas every one of Trump’s (few) weaknesses plays to every one of Sanders’s strengths. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, running Clinton against Trump is a disastrous, suicidal proposition.
– From February’s post: Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Beat Donald Trump
The latest Quinnipiac University Survey on the 2016 U.S. Presidential election is absolutely fascinating, and presents some very bad news for team Clinton, as well as all the clueless pundits who say Trump can’t win.
The major takeaway is that Trump and Clinton are locked in a total dead heat in the three key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This is remarkable considering all the heinous things Trump said on his way to the GOP nomination, and the fact that he’s barely started to “sell” himself to the general electorate, which is his primary skill in life.
Several things we already knew were confirmed by the survey, such as the fact that Clinton dominates Trump when it comes to women and minorities. Trump likewise dominates when it comes to white men. The only interesting aspect is how huge the spreads are within these categories.
The truly fascinating takeaway from the survey can be found in the details. The key demographics Clinton needs to do well in (youth and independents) are areas in which she struggles mightily in these swing states. In contrast, Bernie Sanders dominates Trump in those two categories, proving once again that he’s by far the stronger general election candidate.
Here’s some of what we learned from Quinnipiac:
In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont runs stronger against the likely Republican nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state, compared to Sanders’ split score, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.
The presidential matchups show:
- Florida – Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;
- Ohio – Trump edges Clinton 43 – 39 percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent;
- Pennsylvania – Clinton at 43 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump 47 – 41 percent.
“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.
“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.”
Strange. We could’ve sworn all the super smart beltway experts told us Trump would get slaughtered by Clinton.
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