In what, if confirmed, would be a major move for Apple’s product development cycle, overnight Japan’s Nikkei reported that Apple is moving from its existing “innovation cycle” with a major iPhone refresh every two years to a three-year cycle. To wit:
Apple will likely take three years between full-model changes of its iPhone devices, a year longer than the current cycle. In a typical two-year term, fall 2016 was supposed to see a major upgrade. But the changes on the model to be launched this autumn will be minor, such as improved camera quality.
According to Nikkei the move is prompted by two factors, and is “largely due to smartphone functions having little room left for major enhancements. A slowing market is another factor.“
In other words, Apple admits it may be nearing “peak technology” and more troubling, “peak demand.”
As it has done before, the Nikkei references the impact on the Japanese supply-chain. It also notes that the iPhone 7 “will look almost identical to the current iPhone 6 and offer relatively minor new features is consistent with other reports.”
The new version slated for this autumn will look almost identical to the current iPhone 6. Functions such as the camera, water resistance and battery capacity will likely be improved, and the headphone jack will be removed. Also, a high-end version of the model will give users better-quality photo capabilities via correction functions.
According to 9to5Mac, these include a KGI report last month stating that the design would be largely unchanged and that it would not have “many attractive selling points.”
As the Mac blog adds, “the claim will likely hurt AAPL stock, which has rebounded in recent weeks with help from a big investment from Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway.”
Bloomberg adds as much, noting that Dialog and AMS already fell on the report of an extended product cycle, and adds that in US trading, Apple and Apple suppliers may move on the report. AAPL was down 0.5% pre-market, Dialog Semiconductor down as much as 4.9% in European trading. Among the suppliers who may be impacted are Cirrus Logic, Qorvo, Skyworks, Broadcom, NXP Semiconductors, Knowles, Analog Devices
As for the new iPhone, 9to5 Mac adds that according to various claimed sketches, renders and photos seen, the iPhone 7 will be very similar in appearance to the iPhone 6 and 6s – right down to identical dimensions – followed by an all-glass phone for the iPhone 8.
Most troubling is the Nikkei suggestion that Apple is not expecting iPhone sales to return to growth until next year.
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