Apr 21st 2016: Oil Pushes Through $45

• This morning, the US dollar is on the back foot after oil prices pushed through $45 yesterday, the highest level in 2016.

• The surge has fuelled fresh moves for commodity currencies, with the AUD/USD nudging to new highs this morning and the USD/CAD steadily slipping lower.

• After a few days of pressure, the USD/JPY has had a negative start.

• Meanwhile, the euro continues to underperform the pound, with the EUR/GBP negative for nine out of the last 10 sessions.

Coming up today: 

• Coming up today we have UK retail sales released at 09.30, with public sector borrowing released at the same time.
• From 12.45, we switch focus to the ECB with the latest minimum bid rate followed by the press conference at 13.30.
• Also at 13.30, we get the Philly Fed manufacturing index, released alongside unemployment claims.
• BOE governor Carney speaks at 15.00.

Trade Idea: 

• The USD/CAD is riding a sustained recovery in oil prices and there could be further downside if prices stabilize at these levels.

• A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the USD/CAD will close below 1.2500 in 60 days time for a potential return of 131%.

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