The April FOMC minutes revealed that Fed officials still expect the economy will rebound after the soft 1Q, but conviction was not quite as high. As a result, “many” participants viewed a June rate hike as “unlikely”. The Fed continued to see inflation converging back to target over time. Overall, FOMC participants maintained that risks still remain largely balanced but uncertainty was creeping up, which was reflected in some of the discussion in the minutes. Starting the hiking cycle the second half of the year still seems quite possible – provided the data support it. Bank of America sees a September hike as most likely, with risks skewed to later.
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