China Data
China CPI data came out bang on market expectation while the PPI rose slightly 3.6 % versus 3.5 % but continues to trend lower despite weaker Yuan and tariff price pressures. But given the delta to expectations are negligible there isn’t much of trade to be had on the data.
Regional equity markets
Regional markets are trading more positively this morning as overall regional volatilities are falling. A weaker US dollar profile is helping to cool depreciation pressure on the Yuan as overextended shorts are getting pared. Don’t confuse this recovery with anything other than consolidation amidst a protracted downtrend in Asia equities. Traders are looking to sell upticks given that intraday volatility can ignite on the drop of a dime.
While neither new or original for that matter and with discussions centring on market uncertainties the topic of China infrastructure spending is making the rounds yet again.
Since additional monetary easing could trigger a run on the Yuan; there’s more chatter that China will move back to its old habits of pumping up infrastructure spending to boost economic growth as Beijing is preparing to pull out their old stimulus playbook.
But overall a quiet start today in the wake of an unusually quiet Monday in US market.
Oil markets
Oil bulls are latching on to falling Iran export data which showed the country’s exports fell even further during the first half of October. Which gives rise to the spare capacity ” proof is in the pudding” argument that until supplies are made quantifiably available, given Venezuela and Iran shortfalls, that squeeze in supply should be enough to support Oil prices until proven otherwise. With so much noise in the market, traders top side ambitions could temper ahead of this week’s US inventory data sets.
Currencies
The US Dollar
Dollar bulls still fear we are little more than a Jay Powell headline away from sending the dollar into full out retreat. especially if he or this week FOMC minutes do walk back the hawkish market interpretation from the last policy meeting.
The Yuan
The USDCNH remains in a very tight range with overnight funding getting extraordinarily liquid, but the forward curve remains under pressure as traders continue to unwind some of the USD paid in forwards on a carryover from the slight de escalation of USD-China tension on the back of Trump -Xi meeting and a softer tone for the Pboc at the IMF in Bali. However, USDCNH remains bid on dips below 6.92 despite today’s CNY fix at 6.9119 today, -35 pips from last fixing and -151 pips from the previous closing at 6.9270 on 16:30 Beijing time. But well in line with market expectations.
With lower CNH vols comes some breathing room for local EM as the Won is making significant headway after the softer US retail sales print. In the absence of strong US economic data for the USD to anchor too, it continues to struggle but EM risk is fraught with peril, and I suspect this is more of a case positions squaring rather than bullish bets put on the table.
New Zealand Dollar
NZD CPI has overshot expectations: +0.9%QoQ for Q3 versus 0.4% prior and 0.7% expected. The RBNZ forecast stood at 0.4%. but taking the gains from energy out of the equation but with very mixed signals on the USD appetite to fade the move has been muted as dollar bulls remain nose-ringed to this weeks FOMC minutes
Daily Markets Broadcast – 2018-10-16
