Market Roundup
- Brazil Apr IPCA-15 mid-month CPI decrease to 1.07 % (fcast 1.00 %) vs prev 1.24 %
- India Mar trade deficit govt -USD increase to 11.79 bln $ vs prev 6.80 bln $
- Canada Mar CPI inflation mm decrease to 0.7 % (fcast 0.5 %) vs prev 0.9 %
- Canada Mar CPI BOC core mm stays flat at +0.6 % (fcast 0.3 %) vs prev 0.6 %
- Canada Feb retail sales mm increase to +1.7 % (fcast 0.5 %) vs prev -1.7 %
- Canada Feb securities cdns c$ mm increase to 9.35 bln c$ vs prev -10.78 bln C$
- Canada Feb securities foreign c$ mm increase to 9.27 bln c$ vs prev 5.73 bln C$
- United States Mar CPI mm, sa stays flat at +0.2 % (fcast 0.3 %) vs prev 0.2 %
- United States Mar core cpi mm, sa stays flat at +0.2 % (fcast 0.2 %) vs prev 0.2 %
- Russia Mar unemployment rate increase to 5.9 % (fcast 5.9 %) vs prev 5.8 %
- United States Apr U Mich sentiment prelim increase to 95.9 (fcast 94.0 ) vs prev 93.0
- United States Mar Cleveland Fed CPI stays flat at +0.2 % vs prev 0.2 %
- Argentina Mar CPI mm increase to 1.3 % (fcast 1.10 %) vs prev 0.90 %
- USD rallies as US inflation rises, USD shorts lighten on Greek uncertainty
- Safe haven flows dominate, USTs reverse early US CPI-related losses rally 1+ point
- Chinese margin adjustment sends global equities lower
- BOJ’s Kuroda says didn’t see strong G20 concern over weak yen
- Greece dismissed reports that it needs to tap cash reserves (EUR 2b) to meet salary payments
- G20 will monitor financial market volatility, structural reforms remain essential for growth (Draft)
Economic Data Ahead
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) China Hse Prices YY Mar (previous -5.7%)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand CPI QQ Q1 (consensus -0.2%, previous -0.2%)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand CPI YY Q1 (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.8%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan Reuters Tankan DI Apr (previous 16)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY is back off the lows at 118.55 and on to the 119 handle with the Yen staging a recovery across the board. Weekend position squaring seen with tarders taking profits off the table, especially as positive data ends the week for the US economy. USD/JPY is currently trading at 118.93 with a high of 119.27 and a low of 118.56. Near term risks are to the downside and below 118.79 could see pair test the 118.33 March 26 low. Option expiries Monday 20th April: 118.00 (310M), 119.50 (210M), 120.26 (280M), 120.91 (500M)
EUR/USD: USD closing the week slightly stronger as positions are squared and the CPI’s supported the theme of a hike this year form the Fed. The single currency staged a nice comeback from Monday’s troughs in the area of 1.0500, managing to close the week on a positive note. EUR/USD is up to test the 1.08 handles resistance and supported by the 1.0625 ascending support line. The pair is currently trading at 1.0794 with a high of 1.0849 and a low of 1.0733. Resistances are at 1.0888, 1.0915 and 1.0942, while on the flipside, supports are located at 1.0693, 1.0666 and 1.0640. Option expiries Monday 20th April: 1.0500 (258M), 1.0740 (276M)
AUD/JPY: AUD dropped at the beginning of week, but then found support and jumped to test 93.00 on Thursday after the Australian jobs report. The pair failed to break above 93.00 again and pulled back. Currently the pair is trading around 92.40, 50 pips lower for the day, but in the same area it was trading a week ago. key resistance level is 93.00, followed by 93.55/60 and 93.85. On the downside, before 90.40 support levels might lie at 91.65, 91.15/20 and 90.65.
GBP/CHF: Pound was boosted by economic data from the UK, pushing GBP/CHF to 1.4340 but the pair lost strength and pulled back. The pair is falling on Friday for the third consecutive day and is headed toward the lowest daily close in two weeks. During the American session GBP/CHF broke below 1.4270 and bottomed at 1.4225, the lowest level since April 6.
AUD/NZD: After reaching 1.0221 in yesterday’s trade, AUD/NZD resumed its slide today. The pair initially found support above 1.0150 but in the Asian hours broke to the downside, reached a fresh daily low at 1.0111. AUD/NZD remains near the lows, holding a bearish tone, on track to end the week with a 70 pips loss. Resistances lie at 1.0145/50, 1.0210/20 (April 6, 17 high) and 1.0265. On the flip side, support might be located at 1.0090, 1.0075 (April 15 low) and 1.0035.
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