Market Roundup
- US Industrial O/Pt MM Mar -0.6%, (consensus -0.3%, previous 0.1%)
- US Capacity Util MM Mar 78.4%, (consensus 78.7%, previous 79%) – weak data moved USD lower
- Canada Feb manufacturing sales mm stays flat at -1.7 % (consensus 0.4 %, previous -1.7 %)
- ECB leaves rates unchanged, Draghi says impact of lower euro having gradual effect on inflation, too early to talk about when mon pol stance could be changed
- Fed’s Bullard no problem hiking rates & then returning to zero lower bound if data demands it
- Germany’s Schaeuble says ECB mon pol adding to German surplus
- Germany says aid payout to Greece in April unrealistic, no one in Eurogroup expects Greek aid issues to be resolved by Apr 24 meeting
- S&P revises Greece sovereign credit outlook to neg from creditwatch neg; current rating is CCC+
- Swiss govt says strong franc unlikely to cause severe crisis
- CA BoC Rate Decision 0.75%- as forecast, sees Jan rate cut as cushioning household sector from income and job pressures caused by lower oil
- Dairy prices fall, volumes increase at auction -NZ’s Fonterra; NZD rallies despite weakness
- Broad based EUR short covering immediate reaction to Draghi presser
- Post-presser gains fade as German 10yr bund yield hits record low
- Rounds of below f/c US econ data weigh on US bond yields and USD
- Equities, oil & most commodities firm on softer USD & lower global bond yields
- Antipodeans & CAD get major boost off commodity lift, less dovish BoC & weak USD
- EUR/USD recovers & threatens key resistance zone
Economic Data Ahead
- (1830 ET/ 2230 GMT) NewZealand Manufacturing PMI Mar (previous 55.9)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e (previous -3073.5b)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Invest JP Stock w/e (previous 1036.1b)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m Mar (previous 2.90%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Employment Mar (consensus 15.0k, previous 15.6k)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Full Time Employment Mar (previous 10.3k)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Participation Rate Mar (consensus 64.6%, previous 64.60%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Unemployment Rate Mar (consensus 6.3%, previous 6.30%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY: Weak dollar, that is falling across the board pushed USD/JPY sharply to the downside. The pair breached 119.00 and tumbled to 118.79, the lowest level since April 3. March lows at 118.32 are in sight and if it drops further it would be trading at the lowest level in more than two months. Supports on the downside are at 118.67, 118.37 and the 118.07. Resistances are at 119.79, 120.09 and 120.39. Option expiries for Thursday 15 April: 121.00 (542M), 121.05 (620M), 122.0 (400M), 124.00 (1.1B)
AUD/USD rallies, as the greenback lost traction across the board. The pair is currently trading at 0.7674 with a high of 0.7702 and a low of 0.7570. Markets lined up for the key Australian jobs report later today in the Asian shift. RBA will be monitoring performances in this sector closely in respect of the policy decision in May at their next meeting. The pair could face resiatance at 0.7686, 0.7705 and then 0.7724. Option expiries for Thursday 15 April: 0.7350 (476M), 0.7400 (581M), 0.7550 (970M), 0.7620 (1.0B)
EUR/USD: A volatile session for EUR/USD so far. The pair gathered traction vs. the US dollar following another set of disappointing results in the US economy, but was capped by 1.0700 with sellers seemed to have clustered around there. The pair bounced off 1.0700 to the 1.0680/85 area amidst a renewed offered tone around the dollar. The pair is now trading at 1.0689 up 0.31% on the day. The next hurdle is at 1.0708 (high ) ahead of 1.0713 (low ) and then 1.0763 (10-d MA). On the downside, supports are at 1.0521 (low ), 1.0457 (2015 low ) and finally 1.0360 (low Jan.8 2003). Option expiries for Thursday 15 April: 1.0550 (803M), 1.0600 (806M), 1.0650 (742M), 1.0800 (1.5B)
GBP/USD upside still intact post Beige Book. GBP/USD has been taking advantage of a weak dollar environment. The beige book gave a a modestly positive review for the US economy but noted that poor weather, a strong dollar and the price of oil were factors that perhaps were hindering much progression. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.4828 a high of 1.4840 and low of 1.4701 on the session post the beige book. Resistances ahead are at 1.4893, 1.4930 and 1.4967, while on the flipside supports are seen at 1.4692, 1.4655 and then 1.4619 .
USD/CHF: After a short lived recovery, USD/CHF resume the decline and dropped sharply during the last hour. The pair fell from 0.9710 to 0.9635, hitting the lowest level in a week. USD/CHF is falling for the third day in a row and if it drops further the key short term support levels lie at 0.9600/05, 0.9540 and 0.9470/75 (Mar, Apr lows).
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com