Market Roundup
- US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 282k, (consensus 290k, previous 291k)
- US Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg w/e 297.00k, (previous 304.75k)
- US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.416m, (consensus 2.403m, previous 2.422m)
- US Markit Comp Flash PMI Mar 58.5, (consensus 57, previous 57.2)
- US Markit Svcs PMI Flash Mar 58.6, (previous 57.1)
- US KC Fed Manufacturing Mar -2, (previous 5)
- US KC Fed Composite Index Mar -4, (previous 1)
- Brazil Unemployment Rate Feb 5.9%, (consensus 5.7%, previous 5.30%)
- Mexico Interest Rate Mar 3%, (consensus 3%, previous 3.00%)
- Fed’s Lockhart once Fed starts liftoff wants CB to be able to move deliberately, low chance of having to turn around & cut rates after liftoff
- Fed’s Lockhart Fed Meetings beginning in June will be “live” for possible rate hike, Fed watching USD & has potential to be drag on economy (CNBC)
- SNB’s Zurbruegg says will intervene in forex market as necessary, Swiss franc is significantly overvalued & should weaken w/time
- ECB’s Draghi EUR/USD fx swings reflect differing cyclical conditions, ECB to buy EUR 60b of bonds in March, no lack of bonds for ECB to buy
- Germany’s Schaeuble Low interest rates causing “huge problems” in Germany- not a criticism of ECB policy
- German economic advisers hike 2015 growth forecast to 1.8 pct
- Bank of Canada’s Poloz global econ recovery is uneven & fragile but progressing, volatility will reflect return to normal trading environment not erosion in CB credibility
- BOE’s Carney, speaking as FSB Chmn, says see risk of disorderly unwinding of portfolios
- Moody’s: Latin American sovereigns have limited upside potential in 2015
- BCB QIR sees 2015 inflation at 7.9%vs 6.1% prev, ’16 inflation at 4.9% v 5% previous
- Barclays sees euro below parity with dollar by Q3 vs Q4 previously
- Japanese PM Abe to address U.S. Congress on April 29
Economic Data Ahead
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan All H’hold Spding YY Feb (consensus -3.2%, previous -5.1%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan All H’hold Spending MM Feb (consensus 0.5%, previous -0.3%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan CPI, Core Nationwide YY Feb (consensus 2.1%, previous 2.2%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan CPI, Overall Nationwide Feb (previous 2.4%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan CPI Core Tokyo YY Mar (consensus 2.2%, previous 2.2%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan CPI, Overall Tokyo Mar (previous 2.3%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan Jobs/Applicants Ratio Feb (consensus 1.15, previous 1.14)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan Unemployment Rate Feb (consensus 3.5%, previous 3.6%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan Retail Sales YY Feb (consensus -1.5%, previous -2%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
EUR/USD: EUR/USD slumped almost 200 pips from 1.1050 to today’s lows at 1.0855. The pair then found some buying interest and is now moving at 1.0875. Positive results from tomorrow’s docket in the US economy could push the USD higher weighing further on the pair. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0879, down 0.81% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1053 and low at 1.0857. If the pair extends its decline beyond 1.0855, 1.0845 is the next support ahead of 1.0820. To the upside, resiatances located at 1.0900, 1.0950 and 1.1000. Option expiries Friday 27th March: 1.0875 (811M), 1.1000 (3.1BLN)
AUD/USD: AUD/USD is down for the third day and on track to test daily lows at 0.7800. After falling around 70 pips from 0.7800 the pair is currently trading at 0.7811, having posted a daily high at 0.7886 and low at 0.7801. Supports for AUD/USD on the downside are at 0.7800, 0.7780 and 0.7760. On the flipside, resiatances are at 0.7850, 0.7880 and 0.7900. Option expiries Friday 27th March:0.7700 (1.5BLN), 0.7775 (225M), 0.8015 (450M)
NZD/USD: Weakened by a stronger USD, NZD/USD reversed sharply and dropped more than a hundred pips from the highs and is now back below 0.7600. The kiwi bottomed at 0.7553, falling to the lowest level since Monday. The decline found support at 0.7545, slightly above weekly lows. 0.7600 now a resistance followed by 0.7660 (daily high) and 0.7695 (Mar 24 high). To the downside, support might lie at 0.7540 (Mar 19 high), 0.7500 and 0.7460. Option expiries Friday 27th March: 0.7730 (517M)
USD/JPY: USD/JPY is technically in to bearish territory, with Feb lows in sight. The pair is currently trading at 119.24 with a high of 119.54 and a low of 118.32. Next week’s jobs numbers as a possible catalyst for further demand for the greenback. Option expiries Friday 27th March: 118.30-35 (500M), 119.00 (1.36BLN), 119.45-50 (400M)
USD/CAD: USD/CAD is recovering from the sell-off on the back of the outlook in the middle eastern oil producing nations and concerns that global supply could once again suffer as a consequence of any conflict. The pair’s recovery from session lows in the 1.2410 area was capped by 1.2500. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2470 with a high of 1.2534 and a low of 1.2408. Option expiries Friday 27th March: 1.2465 (735M), 1.2500 (278M), 1.2525 (242M)
USD/CHF: USD/CHF reached a fresh high at 0.9656 today as the US dollar strengthened across the board during the American session and erased all losses as stocks in Wall Street turned positive. At the time of writing the pair is trading at 0.9628. Immediate resistance now lies at 0.9665 and above at 0.9695 (Mar 24 high) and 0.9725 (Mar 20 low). Option expiries Friday 27th March: 0.9700 (216M)
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