Market Roundup
- US Redbook MM w/e 1.3%, (previous 1.2%)
- US Redbook YY w/e 3.4%, (previous 3%)
- US JOLTS Job Openings Feb +5.133m, (consensus 5.010m, previous +4.965m)
- US Consumer Credit Feb 15.52b, (consensus 12.50b, previous 11.56b)
- Brazil Auto Sales MM Mar 26.2%, (previous -26.7%)
- Brazil Auto Output MM Mar 22.9%, (previous -2.3%)
- Fed’s Kocherlakota says Fed should defer rate hike to H2 ’16, Fed can be late & slow to raise rates
- ECB’s Mersch says free to adjust QE programme (Boersen Zeitung)
- ECB says public sector bond purchases total EUR 52,522b vs 41.066 on Mar 27
- Canada’s Harper has some concern about household debt, but says data suggests borrowers & lenders in good shape
- Italy’s Renzi tax cut possible in 2016 if conditions right, confirms ’15 GDP growth f/c at 0.7%
- Saudi’s Naimi says ready to help improve oil prices but not alone, says kingdom not competing w/shale oil welcomes it
- UN cuts 2015 Latin America growth forecast to 1 percent
- Scattered power outages affect White House, Capitol; no initial indications of terrorism
- U.S. Capitol police spokeswoman says power restored to grounds, grounds may experience add’l outages or surges
Economic Data Ahead
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Current Account NSA JPY Feb (consensus 1150.0b, previous 61.4b)
- (0100 ET/ 0500 GMT) Japan Economy Watchers Poll Mar (previous 50.1)
Key Events Ahead
- Japan BOJ Monetary policy statement
- (2300 ET/ 0300 GMT) Japan BOJ’s Kuroda press conference
FX Recap
USD/JPY: US dollar is recovering and on track to post weekly gains for the first time after three consecutive weeks of losses. USD/JPY rose to 3-week highs near 120.40 as the greenback remained on the right footing vs. the Japanese currency on Tuesday. Key events ahead for the pair, BoJ monetary policy tomorrow followed by a press conference by Gov Kuroda and the Eco Watchers Survey. FOMC could prove to be critical for USD bulls in the medium term. Currently the pair is trading at 120.34 up 0.67% on the day. Next resistances are at 121.00 ahead of 121.20 and finally 121.41. On the flip side, supports are at 118.92, 118.71 and then 118.33. Option expiries Weds 8th April: 119.50 (700M), 120.00 (806M),120.50 (301M), 120.65 (400M)
USD/CAD rose at the beginning of US session to 1.2522, reaching the highest level since Friday, but trimmed gains as crude oil soared to test 2015 highs. The pair failed to hold above 1.2500 and pulled back and dropped to 1.2466. The loonie climbed versus the other commodity currencies during the last hours, boosted by a rally of crude oil. Resistance seen at 1.2531, 1.2562 and 1.2594, while on the downside supports are at 1.2397 , 1.2428 and then 1.2459.
EUR/USD: Selling pressure gathered traction around the euro on Tuesday. The pair is extending its leg lower from recent peaks near 1.1040. Declines picked up pace despite a better print from the Sentix index and mostly positive readings from Markit’s Services PMI. The focus on Wednesday will be on the FOMC minutes from the March 18th meeting. The pair is now trading at 1.0850 down 0.66% on the day. Immediate support is at 1.0834 (low Apr.7) followed by 1.0784 (21-d MA) and then 1.0766 (low Apr.2). On the flip side, resiatances are at 1.0956 (high Apr.7), 1.1036 (high Apr.6) and finally 1.1052 (high ). Option expiries Weds 8th April: 1.0800 (615M), 1.0825-35 (600M), 1.0900 (543M), 1.0955 (401M)
GBP/USD latest upside attempt was capped by the 1.4910 zone. Cable surrendered to dollar strength and was dragged to a session low of 1.4838. GBP/USD decline was halted a few pips above its European low of 1.4828. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4858, now 0.10% below its opening price. GBP/USD could find immediate supports at 1.4828 (daily low), 1.4800 (psychological level) and 1.4775 (Apr 2 low). Resistances are seen at 1.4919 (daily high), 1.4980 (Apr 6 high) and 1.5000 (psychological level). Option expiries Weds 8th April: 1.4900 (900M), 1.4930 (301M), 1.4700 (516M)
USD/CHF: Greenback gained momentum across the board lifting USD/CHF to fresh daily high at 0.9660. The pair currently remains above 0.9650 holding a bullish tone. The US dollar has gained around 160 pips versus the Swiss franc since the beginning of the week. Resistance levels might lie at 0.9695 and 0.9750. To the downside, support might now lie at 0.9650, 0.9635 and 0.9480 (Apr 3 low). Option expiries Weds 8th April: 0.9710-20 (420M), 0.9825 (500M)
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