- Greece offers new proposals to avert default, creditors see hope, EuroGroup FinMins to approve cash-for-reform package Wednesday, final endorsement by EZ leaders Thursday.
- Japan June flash manufacturing PMI 49.9, May final 50.9, output and new orders off, but new export orders up, strong, future reads important.
- China June HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI 49.6, May final 49.2.
- Explosive local government debt issuance threatens China CB easing efforts.
- Australia Q1 house price index +1.6% q/q, +2.3% eyed, +6.9% y/y still.
- NZ Q2 farmer confidence down, lowest in 9 years, outlook gloomy, 45% negative.
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France June business climate index, 103.0 eyed; last 103.0.
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) France June PMI manufacturing flash, 49.5 eyed; last 49.4.
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) France June PMI services flash, 52.6 eyed; last 52.8.
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) France June PMI composite – flash; last 52.0.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Germany June PMI manufacturing flash, 51.3 eyed; last 51.1.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Germany June PMI services flash, 53.0 eyed; last 53.0.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Germany June PMI composite flash; last 52.60.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro Zone June PMI manufacturing flash, 52.2 eyed; last 52.2.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro Zone June PMI services flash, 53.6 eyed; last 53.8.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro Zone June PMI composite flash, 53.5 eyed; last 53.6.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy April industrial orders/sales; last -0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y, +1.3%, +0.9%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy April retail sales; last -0.1% m/m, -0.2% y/y.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May durable goods orders, -0.6% m/m eyed; last -1.0%, ex-defense -0.3%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May ex-transport, +0.6% m/m eyed; last -0.2%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May non-defense ex-air, +0.5% m/m eyed; last -0.3%.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) US April monthly home prices; last +0.3% m/m, +5.2% y/y.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US June Markit PMI manufacturing flash, 54.2 eyed; last 54.0.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US May new home sales, 530k AR eyed; last 520k,+6.8% m/m.(1000 ET/1400 GMT) US June Rich Fed mfg shipments, services, comp indices; last -1, +13, +1.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Bank of Greece roundtable discussion in Athens.
- N/A UK 0.125% 2046 index-linked Gilt syndication, Spain 3/9-mo bill auctions.
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) Norges Bank Gov Olsen address to CB’s regional network in Hammerfest.
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) ECB/BdF Noyer speech at Paris conference.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Netherlands E1-1.5 bln 2.75% 2047 DSL auction.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) ECB 7-day refinance at fixed 0.05%, last bln allotment.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) UK CBI industrial survey.
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) Fed Gov Powell speech in Washington, DC.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported below 1.1300 levels and currently trading at 1.1263 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1346 and low at 1.1253 levels. Pair came under renewed selling pressure after the US dollar rebounded sharply higher as traders continue to cheer remarkable existing home sales data from the US while keeping an eye on a US economic releases including durable goods orders, new home sales, and manufacturing data due for release later today. The major also remains heavy given lack of progress seen on the Greece front with fallout seen once again at Monday’s EU Summit. Traders seem to have lost interest in this ongoing Greece story. Initial support is seen around 1.1220 and resistance is seen around 1.1375 levels.USD/JPY is supported above 123.00 levels and posted a high of 123.77 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.33 and currently trading at 123.71 levels. The world’s most commonly traded currency went from strength-to-strength at the start of the new week, sending the Japanese yen lower in its wake. The US dollar continued to advance against the Japanese yen after the positive US existing home sales data. Monday kicked off a rally in the US dollar after US existing home sales recorded an above-consensus 5.35 million in May, building on April’s revised 5.09 million. In Asian session Japan released June flash manufacturing PMI data to 49.9 from May final 50.9. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 122.10 levels.GBP/USD is supported below $1.5800 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5830 and low at 1.5763 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5767 levels and looks to test 1.57 barriers as traders favour the reserve currency ahead of the Greek decision and positive US existing home sales data. Today UK will release CBI industrial order expectations for the further direction. Initial support is seen at 1.5744 and resistance is seen around 1.5939 levels.USD/CHF is supported above 0.9200 levels and trading at 0.9275 levels and made intraday low at 0.9208 and high at 0.9284 levels. Pair is trading higher after positive economic data released from US. Market will eye onUS economic releases including durable goods orders, new home sales, and manufacturing data due for release later today. Today is data free session for Switzerland. Near term support is seen at 0.9113 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9289 levels.AUD/USD is supported around 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7701 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7738 levels and low at 0.7693 levels. The Australian dollar fell back around the $0.77 handle against the US dollar on Tuesday after factory data from Australia’s biggest export destination China signalled continued weakness in June. The HSBC-Markit PMI rose from 49.2 to a preliminary 49.6 in June, where a figure below 50 signals weaker activity, while a reading above 50 indicates an expansion. Today Australia also released House Price Index data with negative numbers. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7838 levels.
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