- Greece talks continue but proving to be exceptionally difficult, Greek parliament must pass reforms by Wednesday, if Germany approves then Bundestag will vote on bailout, Friday earlier for news on deal, weekend more likely, another EU Summit expected.
- French deny EU report of possible bridge loan for Greece.
- China June trade surplus $46.54 bln, exports +2.8% y./y, imports -6.1%, $55.7 bln, -0.2% and -15.0% eyed.
- China regulator orders brokerages to review trades following stock rout.
- China to step up copper imports after price slump.
- NZ June REINZ median house prices -0.9% m/m, +5.6% y/y.
- NZ June food price index +0.5% m/m, +0.1% y/y, May +0.4%, +0.8%.
- No data schedule for the day.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Brussels Euro Group meeting.
- N/A Germany E2 bln 6-mo Bubill, France BTF t-note auctions.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy max E7.5 bln 0.25/1.35/1.65/3.25% 2018/22/32/46 BTP auctions.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) Belgium E1.8-2.6 bln 3.0/0.8/4.25% 2019/25/41 OLO auctions.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported above 1.1100 levels and currently trading at 1.1133 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1150 and low at 1.1091 levels. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos are pressured during the Euro zone leaders’ summit to accept extremely tough austerity measures as conditions to a third bailout for Greece, while deep cracks are appearing in European unity. Besides Greece, Yellen spoke on Friday to give markets more of an insight on the US economy and interest rates, implying in her speech that although the global outlook is uncertain, she feels that there will be rate hikes before the year is out. Initial support is seen around at 1.0914 and resistance at 1.1243 levels.USD/JPY is supported above 122.00 levels and posted a high of 122.73 levels. It has made intraday low at 122.15 and currently trading at 122.58 levels. Pair remains intact in the mid-Asian session, as the Japanese currency remains in demand amid Grexit fears as Greek talks resume at EU Summit in the early hours on Monday. Over the weekend’s emergency meeting the Eurozone leaders offered a 72-hours deadline (till July 15) to Greece for implementing the reforms in exchange for further bailout funds before a temporal Grexit is back on the table. Today Japan released revised industrial production data with flat numbers at -2.1%. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 120.63 levels.GBP/USD is supported around $1.5500 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5521 and low at 1.5490 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5498 levels. The pair extends its upbeat momentum as fresh Greek hopes spurred generalized risk-on moods, with investors rushing to riskier assets. Today BOE will release credit condition survey. It shows credit conditions of the bank and non bank lenders in the past 3 months and next 3 months. Initial support is seen at 1.5256 and resistance is seen around 1.5603 levels.USDCHF is supported around 0.9400 levels and trading at 0.9407 levels and made intraday low at 0.9375 and high at 0.9412 levels. Pair is trading flat after made low around 0.9328 levels. Today is data this calendar so market will eye on Greece news for the further movement. Near term support is seen at 0.9341 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9500 levels.AUD/USD is supported below 0.7500 levels and trading at 0.7445 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7467 levels and low at 0.7407 levels. The Australian dollar broke out of the bearish gap and climbed higher in the Asian session, now pushing AUD/USD towards fresh session highs, as traders continue to digest the latest Greek talks while ignoring mixed Chinese trade data. China’s trade surplus shrank to $46.6 billion in June from $59.49 billion, coming in weaker than the forecast $57 billion surplus. Initial support is seen at 0.7360 and resistance at 0.7647 levels.
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