Market Roundup
- Japan Fin Min Aso – FX, stock markets showing signs of stabilizing.
- Econ Min Ishihara – PM Abe to decide on any sales tax delay based on economic conditions.
- Negative rates beginning to bite BoJ, CP yields dipping deep into negative territory – Nikkei.
- Japan February household spending +1.7% m/m, +1.2% y/y, +0.5% and -1.5% eyed, leap year effect helped, first y/y rise in six months, propensity to consume up.
- Japan February retail sales +0.5% y/y, +1.7% eyed, and tourism down with JPY up.
- Japan February unemployment 3.3%, jobs-applicants ratio 1.28, Jan 3.2%, 1.28.
- Japan top salt seller plans first price hike in 24 year, +35% or so – Nikkei.
- China’s milk stockpile leaves New Zealand dairy farmers struggling.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden February trade balance; last SEK1.6 bln surplus.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden February retail sales, +0.5% m/m, +4.2% y/y eyed; last +0.7%, +4.0%.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden February household lending; last +7.5% y/y.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro zone February money supply M3, +5.0% y/y eyed; last +5.0%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro zone February loans; last +0.6% to non-fin’ls, +1.4% to households.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy March consumer confidence index, 114.0 eyed; last 114.5.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy March business confidence index, 102.3 eyed; last 102.0.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) US Jan CaseShiller 20, +0.1% m/m nsa, +0.7% sa eyed; last unchanged, +0.8%.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) US January CaseShiller 20, +5.8% y/y eyed; last +5.7%.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US March consumer confidence index, 94.0 eyed; last 92.2.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) US March Dallas Fed services revenues, outlook indices; last 9.7, -19.2.
Key Events Ahead
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Japan MoF Asakawa press conference pre-G20 seminar in Paris.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) BoE FPC statement.
- (0505 ET/0905 GMT) Italy E6 bln 6-month BOT auction.
- (0515 ET/0915 GMT) SF Fed Williams speech at Singapore National University.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) CBO analysis of ’17 Obama budget.
- (0700 ET/1100 GMT) ECB/Slovakia CB Makuch press conference on latest economic forecasts.
- (0700 ET/1100 GMT) ECB/Slovenia CB Jazbec, FinMin Mramor press conference in Ljubljana.
- (0855 ET/1255 GMT) France E3.1-3.5/1.0-1.4/1.0-1.4 bln 3/6/12-month BTF note auctions.
- (1130 ET/1530 GMT) FOMC Chair Yellen at New York Economic Club luncheon/16:00 NY Fed Dudley.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Dallas Fed Kaplan speaks in Austin, Texas/20:00 speaks at UT Austin.
FX Recap
USD: The dollar sagged against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after disappointing U.S. economic data pushed it away from a 12-day peak. The dollar index was little changed at 96.020 after sliding on Monday from 96.399; it’s highest since March 16.
EUR/USD: The euro was steady at $1.1194 after gaining about 0.3 percent overnight to snap a six-day losing streak. Pair fails to sustain below key support at $1.1159 marks and trading around $1.1190. Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support level at $1.1159. A daily close above key resistance at 1.1217 will drag the parity towards $1.1342/ $1.1376 marks. On the down side, key support level is seen at $1.1159/ $1.1057 marks.
USD/JPY: The yen underperformed the defensive greenback. The dollar hovered near 113.69 yen struck overnight, it’s highest since March 16, and the euro reached a two-week high of 127.15. Japanese Yen breaks key resistance at 112.60 and remains well supported around 113.60 levels. A daily close below key support level at 112.60 will drag the parity down towards at 110.66/ 108.75/107.51 marks thereafter. On the top side, key resistance levels are seen at 114.87/115.96 levels.
GBP/USD: The sterling came within striking distance of $1.4300, pulling away from last week's trough of $1.4056. Pair rejects initial resistance level at $1.4283 and took reversal towards $1.4221 marks. A sustained break below key support level will drag the parity down at $1.4057 marks. On the other side, a daily close above $1.4357 will take the parity up towards key resistances at $1.4504/$1.4602.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged up to $0.7551, from $0.7533 on Tuesday before the long Easter break. It remained within reach of an 8-month summit of $0.7681 touched earlier this month. The Aussie was last at $0.7553, following a 0.5 percent gain on Monday. Australian dollar remains supported around $0.7550. Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at $0.7497 levels. A sustained close above it will drag the parity up towards 0.7725 levels. On the downside, a sustained break below $0.7433 support levels will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7365 low.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar rallied overnight, rising to $0.6736 from as low as $0.6670 the previous session after six days of falls. Kiwi erases previous loss against US dollar and edged up for testing key resistance at 0.6750 marks. A daily close above $0.6750 is required to test $0.6859 level. Short term bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at $0.6668. Key support was found at $0.6585, with resistance at $0.6885 levels.
Equities Recap
The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.16% to 17,106.14 points on Tuesday morning in Tokyo, while the broader Topix index was trading 0.68% lower at 1,372.32 points.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipped 0.13% to 20,319.52 points early on, while the Shanghai Composite index fell 0.25% to 2,950.46 points.
South Korea's Kospi index rallied 0.23% to 1,987.14 points in early trade.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index was trading 1.34% lower to 5,015.50 points on Tuesday morning in Sydney.
New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 index gauge rose 0.11% to 6,669.84 points on Tuesday.
Commodities Recap
Gold clung to small overnight gains on Tuesday to hold above a one-month low, supported by a softer dollar and weak U.S. economic data that dented expectations of an immediate hike in U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was little changed at $1,221.40 an ounce by 0033 GMT. The metal had fallen to a one-month low of $1,208.15 on Monday, before closing the day up 0.4 percent.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as concerns mount that a rally since January is fizzling out, while analysts forecast another rise to record levels for U.S. crude stockpiles. U.S. oil was down 30 cents at $39.09 a barrel at 0553 GMT, after finishing down 7 cents at $39.39, the previous session. Brent fell 35 cents to $39.92. On Monday it settled down 17 cents at $40.27 a barrel.
Treasuries Recap
Australian government bond futures were a touch firmer, with the three-year bond contract up 1 tick at 98.040. The 10-year contract rose half a tick to 97.4250, while the 20-year contract edged up 1 tick to 96.8550.
The New Zealand dollar rallied overnight, rising to $0.6736 from as low as $0.6670 the previous session after six days of falls. New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields one basis point lower along most of the curve.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com