- BOJ June 18-19 Policy Board meeting minutes – Underlying inflation to improve, QQE effects still substantial, some say effect diminishing, to remain flexible despite fewer meeting, adjust policy as needed, unscheduled meetings possible, Cabinet Office called for close policy interaction, with CEFP too.
- Japan business mood subdued on uncertainty over China, Reuters Tankan July manufacturing DI +14, unchanged from June, non-mfg DI +24, July record +36, +15 and +24 eyed for October.
- RBA July 7 meeting minutes – Steady policy appropriate, eyeing data, further AUD fall likely-necessary, inflation well-contained, slack in economy.
- NZ Finance Minister English – Perfect storm of supply created mountains of milk powder stockpiles in China, could delay recovery in dairy price till year-end.
- NZ posts record-high migration in June year.
- (0200 ET/0600 GMT) Switzerland June trade balance; last bln surplus.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK June PSNB, GBP8.6 bln eyed; last GBP 9.35 bln.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK June ex-banks, GBP8.5 bln eyed; last bln.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK June PSNCR; last bln.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A ESM E2 bln 6-month bill, Spain 3/9-month bill auctions.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) ECB 7-day refi at fixed 0.05%, E75 bln allotment eyed, last bln.
- (0915 ET/1315 GMT) BOJ Gov Kuroda speech in Bangkok.
- (0915 ET/1315 GMT) UK ChancExch Osborne parliamentary testimony.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) BoE Gov Carney speech in London.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported around 1.0800 levels and currently trading at 1.0813 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.0823 and low at 1.0819 levels. The USD keeps its gains vs. the Euro at the start of the week in a consolidative pattern around 1.0900. While the Greek crisis is not going to completely disappear from the radar any time soon, there is definitely a loud sigh of relief in Europe. In the week ahead, easy on macroeconomic data, BoE Minutes and flash manufacturing and services PMIs from Germany, France and the whole euro zone will be drawing the attention of traders. Initial support is seen around at 1.0789 and resistance at 1.0896 levels.USD/JPY is supported around 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.44 levels. It has made intraday low at 124.16 and currently trading at 124.40 levels. Japanese stocks led gains in Asia on Tuesday, with the local bourses opening for the first time this week, while gold miners were down sharply in Australia as prices tumbled overnight. Renewed yen weakness had a positive impact on Japan’s stock markets on Tuesday. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 120.63 levels.GBP/USD is supported below $1.5600 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5571 and low at 1.5554 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5564 levels. The UK currency eased from its intraday high and slid well below the 1.56 threshold on start of the week. The week ahead in the UK does kick off with the public finances release on Tuesday (more on this later), but market participants will sharpen their focus more on the MPC minutes due Wednesday, and retail sales figures out the following day. Initial support is seen at 1.5413 and resistance is seen around 1.5734 levels.NZDUSD is supported above 0.6500 levels and trading at 0.6593 levels and made intraday low at 0.6554 and high at 0.6605 levels. The New Zealand dollar was pushed higher after the PM expressed caution about the scale of the currency’s recent fall. Traders said the kiwi had recovered some ground after PM John Key said the currency’s 25 pct fall over the last year had been faster than expected. While the RBNZ is widely expected to follow up last month’s rate cut with another on Thursday. The New Zealand dollar had a solid start to the week, rising for the second day in a row on Tuesday, with the much-awaited Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash-rate decision pending. Initial support is seen at 0.6465 and resistance at 0.6645 levels.AUD/USD is supported around 0.7350 levels and trading at 0.7346 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7384 levels and low at 0.7345 levels. The Australian dollar eased on Tuesday as minutes from the RBA’s July 7 meeting reiterated the bank’s stance that depreciation in the Australian dollar is both necessary and likely. Although the exchange rate against the US dollar was close to levels last seen in 2009, the decline in the Australian dollar had been more modest in terms of a basket of currencies. The Australian economy has suffered sub-trend growth in recent years due to the winding down of the mining-investment boom, as a consequence of the sharp drop in global commodity prices over the last two years. Initial support is seen at 0.7325 and resistance at 0.7647 levels.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com