Market Roundup
- China April official mfg PMI 50.1, 50.0 eyed, March 50.1.
- China April official non-mfg PMI 53.4, March 53.7.
- NZ April QV residential property price index +8.4% y/y, March +7.7%.
- NZ FinMin English: Bigger budget deficit, smaller future surplus, low inflation sustaining stronger growth, keeping rates lower for longer.
- Bank of Japan target: Consumption recovery key to inflation goals.
- Japan March nationwide core CPI +2.2% y/y, Tokyo April core +0.4%, +2.1% and +0.5% eyed, nationwide March core-core CPI ex-food/energy +2.1%.
- Japan March household spending +2.4% m/m, -10.6% y/y, +0.5% and -12.1% eyed.
- Japan March unemployment 3.4%, 3.5% eyed, Feb 3.5%, jobs-applicants ratio unchanged at 1.15, as eyed.
- Japan March total cash earnings +0.1% y/y, real wages -2.6%, overtime -2.3%.
- Japan Apr mfg PMI – final 49.9, flash 49.7, contraction confirmed, March 50.3.
- MoF flow data week-ended April 25- Japanese buy net Y170.0 bln foreign stocks, Y185.3 bln bonds, Y159.8 bln bills; foreign investors buy net Y821.0 bln.
- Foreign CB US debt holdings +$10.981 bln to $3.294 trln April 29 wk, Treasury holdings +$10.106 bln to $2.966 trln, agencies +$948 mln to $284.135 bln.
- Australia April mfg PMI +1.7 opt to 48.0, still sub-50.
- Australia Q1 final demand PPI +0.5% q/q, +0.7% y/y.
- RBA to cut interest rates in May in face of weak economy.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK April mfg PMI, 54.6 consensus; previous 54.4
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK March mortgage lending, GBP1.8 bln consensus; previous bln
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK March mortgage approvals, 62.4k consensus; previous 61.76k
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK March consumer credit, GBP800 mln consensus; previous GBP740 mln
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK Mar money supply M4; previous -0.2%
- (0945 EDT/1345 GMT) US April Markit mfg PMI – final; prelim 54.2
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US April ISM mfg PMI, 52.0 consensus; previous 51.5, new orders 51.8
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US April ISM mfg employment index, 50.2 consensus; previous 50.0
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US April U.Mich sentiment index – final, 96.0 consensus; prelim 95.9
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US March construction spending, +0.5% m/m consensus; previous -0.1%
- (1330 EDT/1730 GMT) US April total vehicle sales, 16.9 mln AR consensus; previous 17.15 mln.
Key Events Ahead
- Market holidays across Asia and Europe for May Day.
- Australia, New Zealand, Japan, United Kingdom and United States markets open.
- N/A UK DMO 1/3/6-month treasury bill auctions.
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) Cleveland Fed Mester speech in Philadelphia.
- (1545 EDT/1945 GMT) SF Fed Williams speech in Orange, California.
FX Recap
USD/JPY is trading around 119.70 levels and made high of 119.75 levels. Pair opened at 119.47 and since then JPY is depreciating against USD and again trying to stabilise above 120.09 levels. There were some of data releases from Japan with a bullish unemployment report and CPI but pair didn’t react on it. Near term support is seen at 1180.80 and resistance at 120.09/ 120.25 levels.AUD/USD opened at 0.7897 and made high above 2 pips only at 0.7899. Pair fell around 0.7873 as USD is strengthening against major peers. Today AUD released its PPI data q/q at 0.5%, which was above consensus forecast of 0.2%. Instead of positive data, pair is moreover range bound only. Initial support is seen at 0.7844 and strong resistance at 0.7923/0.8010 levels. If it resumes the 0.80 levels again, it could further extend its gains to 0.8113 levels and then to 0.8250 levels.NZD/USD is trading around 0.7587 levels. It made high of 0.7609 and new weekly low at 0.7568 levels. Today is data free session for NZD. Moreover, negative china manufacturing PMI data also weighed on NZD as China is New Zealand’s leading trading partner. On the top side resistance is seen at 0.7610, 0.7670 levels. Immediate support is seen at 0.7540 (April 24 low).GBP/USD opened at 1.5352 and made high at 1.5358 levels. Pair is nearby 100 pips down from yesterday’s high at 1.5491 levels. In today’s trading session UK will release Manufacturing PMI data. Which provides further direction of UK’ economic conditions. Initial support is seen at 1.5320, 1.5304. Resistance is seen around 1.5386, 1.5437.EUR/USD is trading nearby yesterday’s close of 1.1211. Pair is fluctuating within 15 pips movement only. If the pair is able to hold above 1.11 levels, it could further rise to 1.1286 levels in the short-term. On the flip side, support is likely to be found at 1.10 levels, below which losses could be extended to 1.0930 levels. Most of Asia and Europe market will remain close today for May Day.
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