Australian Dollar:
The domestic currency has been bolstered over the last trading session as positive business confidence figures were released yesterday alongside weak US sales and inflation data. Intraday the NAB business confidence report revealed that there have been improving economic conditions throughout March which saw the Aussie trend upwards, then in the overnight markets retail sales and PPI inflation figures out of the US which came in below expectations pushed the AUD/USD to highs of 0.7649. Chinese GDP and Industrial production reports being announced midway throughout the day will attract trader’s attention for any clues on which direction the AUD will be heading. The Aussie opens today at AUD/USD 0.7625.
We expect a range today of 0.7580 – 0.7660
New Zealand Dollar:
The Kiwi starts the day much stronger buying 75.19 US cents. After trading sideways throughout the majority of yesterday’s Asian session, the NZ dollar spiked overnight as March core retails sales, PPI inflation, and retails sales figures from the US printed much lower than anticipated. These disappointing reports have indicated that perhaps economic growth is losing momentum US, and also managed to drive the NZD/USD cross to overnight highs of NZD/USD 0.7553. With no local releases scheduled on the economic calendar the Kiwi will take its direction from overseas announcements today, with Chinese GDP and production figures looking to have the most significant impact on the local currency.
Great British Pound:
With local inflation reports having a muted effect on the pound sterling support was found overnight off the back of US economic figures that missed forecast. Consumer inflation held steady at 0%, however as this was expected there was only a slight dip to intraday lows of GBP/USD 1.4609, however this then corrected within the hour. Commentators have mentioned that the sudden drop in inflation is in part due to low oil prices, as well as a drop in food prices. As with most other major currencies overnight the GBP was boosted by negative US economic data which hinted at a slowdown in the economic recovery in the world’s largest economy. The Pound sterling opens at GBP/USD 1.4779 and will look overseas for stimulus today as the only announcement on the economic docket is the CB leading index, which is expected to have only a minor impact on the currency.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 1.9340 – 1.9420
Majors:
The Greenback has taken a dive against all its major counterparts as a string of disappointing economic data was released yesterday on home ground. March figures for PPI inflation, retails sales, and core retails sale were announced yesterday below expectations which saw a mass sell-off of USD across the board. The EUR/USD did gain off this news, however there are still concerns for the Euro blocs most indebted state as negotiations for Greek economic reforms continue. The possibility of Greece exiting the Euro is always on the table, and the general consensus is that if this were to happen the result would be quite costly for Greece and the Euro zone. The EUR starts trade today higher at EUR/USD 1.0653