Australian Dollar:
Speculation by investors that the US Federal Reserve may in fact not raise rates until early next year has seen the Australian dollar reach new highs yesterday coming close to the 74 US cent handle. With no domestic announcements on the cards yesterday the increasing chance that a US rate hike may be delayed till 2016 was at the forefront of traders’ minds which saw the AUD/USD hit 73.82 overnight. The Aussie today will look locally for stimulus as NAB Business confidence figures are scheduled for release, as well as Chinese trade balance numbers are also tentatively planned for announcement today. The AUD/USD starts at 0.7359 this morning.
We expect a range today of AUD/USD 0.7310 – 0.7390
New Zealand Dollar:
The NZ Dollar has opened higher against its US counterpart this morning even in the absence of local economic data releases yesterday. Speculation that China stimulus may be around the corner in order to boost the lagging economy, as well as expectations for a rate hike in the US being pushed backed further to next year has helped bolster the Kiwi value. The NZD/USD traded between lows of 0.6672 and highs of 0.6739 throughout yesterday’s trade session, and opens this morning buying 67.13 US cents. Investors today will be looking overseas for any catalyst for NZD price action, namely Chinese trade balance figures tentatively on the cards.
Great British Pound:
The pound sterling commences trade this morning stronger against the Greenback as soft Federal Reserve rate hike expectations sees the USD fall across the board. The Cable reached highs of 1.5372 last night and opens this morning around similar levels at 1.5343. The local currency has however unfortunately opened weaker when compared to their Aussie and Kiwi counterparts at 2.0845 and 2.2852 respectively. All eyes today will be on an array of domestic inflationary data scheduled for release which will give some insight into the state of the economy and perhaps indicate how likely a rate hike in the UK will be in the near future. These figures include CPI, PPI, RPI, and HPI numbers.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 2.0800 – 2.0880
Majors:
The Euro Dollar traded sideways throughout the most part of yesterday trade session and opens virtually unchanged at EUR/USD1.1362. With expectations of a 2015 rate hike in the US rapidly declining, traders are also awaiting the European Central Bank to ramp up their own quantitative easing measures. With a relatively thin economic docket on the cards today the only announcement looking to have a significant impact on the currency pair would be the German ZEW Economic Sentiment figures being released later in the evening, which is considered a leading indicator of economic health due to changes in sentiment regarded as being early signals of future economic activity.
Data releases:
AUD: RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks, NAB Business Confidence
CHF: PPI m/m
CNY: Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y, Trade Balance, M2 Money Supply y/y, New Loans
EUR: German Final CPI m/m, German WPI m/m, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment
GBP: BRC Retails Sales Monitor y/y, CPI y/y, BOE Credit Conditions Survey, PPI Input m/m, RPI y/y, Core CPI y/y, HPI y/y, PPI Output m/m
JPY: Monetary Policy Meetins Minutes, Bank Lending y/y, Consumer Confidence, Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
NZD: FPI m/m
USD: NFIB Small Business Index, Federal Budget Balance