FXStreet (Guatemala) – Daniel Been, analyst at ANZ explained AUD weakness is going to be far more extended, and in fact that we are at risk of a two standard deviation move down towards USD0.60.
Key Quotes:
“Overshoots are not uncommon for the AUD.
Previous instances when the AUD has overshot suggest that a reversal at this point in the cycle is unusual.
In those instances when we have seen a turn at thispoint it was at a time when the fundamental backdrop was becoming unambiguously favourable and where fair value was starting to trend higher.
The turning points have also come at a point where Australian assets were trading at a discount to global assets, they are currently still at a premium.
The overshoot is still justified by global circumstances and by the softer, more volatile growth outlook in particular.
Domestic and global circumstances suggest caution in trying to pre-emptively pick a positive turn in the global environment.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)