Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the minutes from the RBA Board’s Mar meeting are due on Tue while the data highlight is Feb labour force (Thu 17th), after Jan’s somewhat soft report which are going to impact the direction of the AUD/USD.
Key Quotes
“The extent of AUD/USD strength has surprised us and we have to allow for the prospect of fresh 9 month highs. Iron ore prices should become more two-way but still leave Australia’s terms of trade on track for a gain in Q1. Moreover, the gloomiest scenarios for energy prices are being shelved and global risk sentiment seems resilient enough to limit AUD/USD dips.
The RBA will be watching with slight unease but it should bide its time on jawboning given the commodity bounce and negative deposit rates at the ECB and BoJ. This upswing could extend as far as 0.76-0.77 but our multi month bias remains lower as growing supply catches up with industrial commodities and USD is fortified by the prospect of a June Fed rate hike.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)