Australian Dollar:
The Aussie has fallen for a second consecutive day and commences trade this morning buying only 75.89 US cents. Despite a slow start to the morning’s trade, Chinese trade balance data that printed well below expectations saw the AUD/USD experience a sharp drop of 60 points almost instantly. The information released revealed that Australia’s largest trading partner’s imports and exports had both reduced dramatically in March, resulting in an AUD selloff and overnight lows of AUD/USD0.7548. The local currency will now look to domestic NAB business confidence data today to try and regain some lost ground it has experienced over yesterday’s trading session.
We expect a range today of 0.7550 – 0.7630
New Zealand Dollar:
Negative economic signs from China have weighed down on the NZ dollar, bringing the local currency to 2 week lows. A report released yesterday showed that imports and exports had fallen considerably, which highlights concerns for milk powder exports for our cross Tasman counterpart. The NZD/USD saw intraday highs of 0.7537 countered by lows of 0.7418, and opens weaker this morning at 0.7459. Investors will be looking to local business confidence figures, as well as overseas inflation and sales data from the US for any form of price driving action.
Great British Pound:
The Pound Sterling has managed to tick higher throughout trade yesterday even though there were no local data releases or announcements made, and opens stronger this morning at GBP/USD 1.4677. The Pound has also open higher against the Aussie and Kiwi starting today at 1.9336 and 1.9676 respectively. All eyes will be on March inflation figures being released later in the session as rising prices may in fact lead the Bank of England to increase interest rates, however with February’s result coming in at 0.3% expectations for any larger inflation figures being reported this time is quite low.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 1.9300 – 1.9380
Majors:
The Euro has mostly traded sideways over yesterday’s session and starts trade this morning valued slightly lower at USD$1.0571. With the uncertain outcome of Greece’s situation still remaining at the forefront of traders’ minds, in overseas markets today’s attention will be taken by retail sales and inflationary data being released out of the US. Both reports look to have a high impact on the Greenback as sales data is a primary gauge of consumer spending which accounts for a significant portion of overall economic activity, and PPI inflation data if reported above expectations, may lead to a higher chance of interest rates being raised in the US.
Data releases:
AUD: NAB Business Confidence
EUR: German WPI m/m, Industrial Production m/m
GBP: BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y, CPI y/y, PPI Input m/m, RPI y/y, Core CPI y/y, HPI y/y, PPI Output m/m
NZD: NZIER Business Confidence
USD: Core Retails Sales m/m, PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core PPI m/m, NFIB Small Business Index, Business Inventories m/m