Australian Dollar
Expected Range 0.7580 – 0.7720
Having sat below the 0.75 US Cent handle only one week ago the Australian Dollar enjoyed continued upside momentum through trade on Tuesday, reaching intraday highs of 0.7686 when valued against its US counterpart. In what’s likely to test policy maker’s tolerance, the Australian dollar’s resilience has corresponded with record low levels of monetary easing. Supported yesterday in most part by stronger than expected PPI and CPI prints from China the Australian dollar opens in a stronger positon this morning as it currently buys 0.7672 US Cents. Attentions now turn to RBA Governor Glenn Stevens as he prepares to deliver his last address as head of the Reserve Bank. Investors will be keenly attuned to insights into future monetary policy and a snapshot into the plans of his successor Philip Lowe. In what shaping up as another steady window for the Aussie we are watching resistance levels at 0.7680 and 0.77 as barriers to further AUD upside.
New Zealand Dollar
Expected Range 0.7100 – 0.7220
The New Zealand dollar edged higher through trade on Tuesday bolstered by a USD sell off and repositioning of Fed interest rate expectations. Touching intraday highs at 0.7180 the Kiwi met resistance on approaches to 0.72 as investors remain conscious of capping gains ahead of Thursday RBNZ policy announcement. The Reserve Bank is largely expected to cut the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by another 25 basis points to 2.00% putting some downside pressure on the NZD advance. Having largely priced in the move investors’ attention will be keenly attuned to Governor Wheeler and the boards accompanying statement. Any insight into future monetary policy will be closely scrutinised and with the Yield advantage still largely intact the Kiwi could bounce should the RBNZ offer a dour or non-committal policy outlook.
Great British Pound
Expected Range 1.6850 – 1.7150
The Great British suffered a heavy sell off through trade on Tuesday falling below 1.30 for the first time since July 12. Sterling was forced lower after Bank of England and MPC member Ian McCafferty warned further rate reductions and Quantitative Easing may be required in the fight against deflation and recession in the post Brexit economy. Yesterday’s sell off marked the 5th consecutive daily depreciation and signals the formations of a significant bearish downturn. As investors and policy makers debate the need for further stimulus the Pound will likely struggle to recoup losses with lows at 1.2795 now insight. With little data on hand today direction will again stem from monetary policy speculation ahead of construction data Friday.
Majors
Expected Range N/A
The US Dollar edged lower against a basket of major currency counterparts through trade on Tuesday as investors debate the possibility of a 2016 Federal Reserve Rate hike. With little macroeconomic data on hand to spur direction investors revised positions following Friday’s stronger than anticipated Non-farm payroll print. While a relief for the FOMC Friday’s labour market assessment wasn’t enough to sway investor expectations and bring forward bets on the timing of the next rate increase. September is largely priced out while November is expected to yield no action with the US Presidential Election dragging attention away from Fed policy. With trading volumes light through the week thus far the Greenback fell back through 102 JPY while the Euro rallied through 1.11 touching intraday highs at 1.1121. Attentions now turn mid-level macroeconomic indicators for direction through trade on Wednesday while the Fed’s August 26 Symposium on Monetary Policy looms as a critical junction in determining short – medium term direction with investors keenly attuned to any insight into future FOMC policy movements.