Fxstreet (Delhi) – Analysts at National Australia Bank notes that the Australian GDP numbers disappointed the investors as the real GDP expanded by just 0.2% in Q2, following an unrevised solid 0.9% increase in Q1. The entire picture looks gloomy with the year-ended growth running at 2.0%, the slowest growth rate since Q3 2013.
Key Quotes
“Variability in Australia’s growth outcomes by quarter indicates an economy undergoing significant structural change as it attempts to transition away from mining-investment led growth.”
“Real GDP growth was low at 0.2% q/q, following a surprisingly strong 0.9% q/q in Q1. Given a number of one-offs influencing both figures, it may be more appropriate to average the past two quarters, which suggests the economy is growing at an average quarterly rate of 0.55% q/q, or 2.2% annualised. This is still a slow rate, but should be viewed in the context of the significant drag on national income due to the decline in the terms of trade.”
“Measures of income were negative given the 3.4% decline in the terms of trade amidst weak commodity prices. Real gross domestic income (real GDP adjusted for the terms of trade) declined (-0.4% q/q and 0.2% y/y).”
“Real net national disposable income was also down (-0.9% q/q and -1.1% y/y); this decline is more pronounced on a per capita basis (-1.2% q/q and -2.3% y/y), suggesting that population growth is still supporting the aggregate figures, despite some recent slowing.”
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