Australian Dollar:
The Aussie opens remarkably stronger against its leading counterparts today as a string of positive data was released yesterday on the home front. Early in the trading session a report printed showing that the change in new home loans granted for owner occupied homes for March has increased by 1.6%. This upbeat publication bolstered the Australian dollar almost immediately, and was later on followed by the annual budget announcement. With the government pledging to reduce debt and the budget deficit as well as introduce generous tax breaks for small business, the higher yielding currency then continued its upward direction off this news to reach overnight highs of AUD/USD 0.8000. Looking ahead, data expected to have an impact on the Aussie during the day would be quarterly local wage price reports and Chinese industrial production figures for April.
We expect a range today of 0.7940 – 0.8020
New Zealand Dollar:
The Kiwi has remained range bound throughout yesterday’s session as investors anxiously await the upcoming Financial Stability report due later today from the RBNZ. The Kiwi saw intraday lows of NZD/USD0.7314 countered by highs of 0.7402, and commences trade today buying 73.60 US cents. In addition to the RBNZ report, the NZ dollar will look overseas for direction with Chinese industrial production and US retail sales data scheduled for release later in the evening. With China being one of New Zealand’s largest trading partners, an encouraging announcement today for the powerhouse Asian economy would most likely carry on a positive effect to the NZD value.
Great British Pound:
The Cable has surged off the back upbeat manufacturing production figures for March that has printed well above expectations. This result saw the Cable reach highs of 1.5667, and has watered down concerns that the UK economic recovering is losing momentum. Today is gearing up to be an actioned packed trading session for the Pound Sterling as a myriad of high impact data is scheduled for release. Earnings numbers, BOE inflation report, BOE Governor Carney speaking, and unemployment figures are all listed on upcoming economic calendar. As such the GBP is likely to experience high volatility over the London trading session.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 1.9590 – 1.9670
Majors:
After ticking higher throughout trade yesterday the EUR/USD starts stronger this morning at 1.1216 with optimism relating to the Greece negotiations beginning to take play. Soft data from the US relating to job availability in April has added to recent Greenback weakness, and the US Dollar will look to upcoming retail sales and core retail sales figures being released overnight for any supporting price action. In the Eurozone an array of figures are being announced today including GDP figures for France, Germany, Italy, as well as some industrial production figures. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the aforementioned announcements for any indication of economic conditions in both regions
Data releases:
AUD: Wage Price Index q/q
CNY: Industrial Production y/y, Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y, Retail Sales, New Loans, M2 Money Supply y/y, Italian Prelim GDP q/q
EUR: French Prelim GDP q/q, German Prelim GDP q/q, German Final CPI m/m, German WPI m/m, French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q, French CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial Production m/m, German 10-y Bond Auction
GBP: Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate, BOE Gov Carney Speaks, BOE Inflation Report, BOE Inflation Letter
JPY: Current Account, Bank Lending y/y, Economy Watchers Sentiment
NZD: RBNZ Financial Stability Report, RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks, FPI m/m,
USD: Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Import Prices m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction