This seemed appropriate…
Quick summary – ISM/PMI beat (good news) and stocks sank but as Europe closed (Italy was ugly again today), so a mysterious bid returned to US stocks – the Dow and S&P scrambled back green briefly, Nasdaq and Small Caps surged again to new records, bond yields fell (bonds were bid), commodities rallied (gold and oil bid), as the dollar tumbled in the late day to unchanged (erasing the overnight gains). Make sense, good.
Tech surged again along with Small Caps as the Dow and S&P trudged sideways around unchanged… Small Caps and Nasdaq ramped into the close to the highs of the day…
Another ramp in small cap and another massive short-squeeze…
US Banks were flat today while EU banks tumbled on Conte’s comments…
Tech extended its run relative to financials to a new post-2000 peak high..
And for fun, here is TECL – the triple-levered tech ETF which is up 4,000% since inception…
Twitter shares extended their overnight spike gains above $40 after inclusion in the S&P 500…
VIX pushed higher to a 13 handle briefly before closing lower on the day…
Notably, the RVX/VIX (Russell 2000 VIX / S&P 500 VIX) ratio has spent 83 consecutive days below 1.2, the longest such period in the history of the two indices. Only in 2008 did the ratio remain below 1.2 for longer than 35 days, in a very volatile period for stocks of all market caps alike.
Short-dated HY Corporate bond ETF fund flows are showing massive exits…
Which may help explain the massive decoupling between stocks and HY bonds recently…
Treasury yields slid lower today, erasing yesterday’s rise…
Bonds traded in a narrow range today
Notably 10Y found resistance – just as we suspected – at the close from the weekend before Italy’s chaos hit…
Another chaotic day in the US Dollar ended with a close of almost unchanged (1168, 1170, 1169, 1168, 1169, 1168, 1171, 1173, 1177, 1170, 1171, 1172, 1171, 1172…)
The Brazilian Real tumbled to its lowest since March 2016 after an early intervention failed (BRL is now down 22% from Jan highs)…
Cryptocurrencies saw gains today, starting with a broad buying program around 11amET
Copper extended its gains and crude bounced back modestly as PMs once again drifted sideways…
WTI tested a $64 handle once again – new two-month lows – before bounmc8ing back above $65…
Gold scrambled back above $1300…
Finally – strangely – the odds of a 4th rate-hike in 2018 (3 more) dropped today…
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