BOJ: Why further QQE tomorrow should not be ruled out?

FXStreet (Bali) – With a surprisingly hawkish FOMC and a dovish RBNZ behind, focus has now shifted to the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting this Friday, a one-day affair this time, and in which the central bank is set to update its semiannual outlook report and revise its outlook on the economy and inflation, both expected to be adjusted lower.

Global easing back in vogue

It is worth noting that one of the re-emerging patterns we’ve seen in the last week has been the adoption of fresh new easing stances by global central banks. Last week, BOC, ECB, and PBOC were all dovish, the first downgrading its growth outlook, the second telegraphing a fairly clear message on further QE expansion as soon as Dec, while the big Panda cut rates even further in order to stimulate growth.

Evidence for further ‘easing’ dope mounts

This week, the RBNZ has reinforced this trend, by stating that “some further reduction in the OCR seems likely, to depend on the emerging flow of economic data. It is appropriate at present to watch and wait.” And while the FOMC sounded more hawkish-than-expected – the FOMC is not in the easing camp league – , this new trend looks like January 2015 all over again, where nearly all c/banks cut rates. what does that mean? It may represent additional risks of further easing by the BOJ tomorrow, as they should be no immune to the resumption of the easing trend.

Market convinced QQE expansion risks exist

As Yujiro Goto, Global FX Strategist at Nomura, reports: “Among BOJ watchers, expectations for a BOJ easing remain strong into the meeting this week (30 October), according to Bloomberg. 16 out of 36 researchers (44%) expect the BOJ to announce an easing on Friday, according to the survey conducted from 20 to 26 October. In the previous survey before the first October meeting, 47% of researchers expected a BOJ easing in October. Expectations for a BOJ easing fell slightly, but Governor Kuroda’s optimistic stance at the previous meeting and the recovery in equity prices and USD/JPY did not lower expectations among researchers much.”

With a surprisingly hawkish FOMC and a dovish RBNZ behind, focus has now shifted to the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting this Friday, a one-day affair this time, and in which the central bank is set to update its semiannual outlook report and revise its outlook on the economy and inflation, both expected to be adjusted lower.

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