Bund has broken above its recent range has been gradually moving up, pushing yields lower.
Today next set of tests lies for bund traders as preliminary readings will be released from Germany.
Past trends –
- In January 2015, German harmonized CPI has fallen to negative territory. Deflation reached as low as -0.5% on yearly basis. However prices have bounced back since then, with introduction of European Central Bank’s (ECB) asset purchase program and higher oil prices. In April H-CPI registered 0.3% growth in prices.
Expectation today –
- Today reading is expected to show that inflation moved higher in May. Market median expectation is 0.6% on yearly basis.
Impact –
- Bund might face selloffs pushing yields higher if inflation surprised to the upside raising concerns over higher inflation and lending government at low rates.
- Bund is likely to maintain moving up, pushing yields lower if inflation remain subdued or in line with expectation. Euro as of now, has broken its correlation with bund, still it might face downward pressure if inflation remains weak. It would mean continued purchase from European Central Bank.
Bund is currently trading at 155.7 is likely to move towards 159 as initial target and Euro is trading at 1.091 against dollar.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com