Despite the biggest MoM jump in business sales since February 2014 (up 0.9% MoM driven by a 3.2% surge in auto sales), the crucial inventory-to-sales ratio remains stubbornly high in recession territory. Year-over-year, inventories have risen 1.0% while sales have tumbled 1.3% (massively helped by a dramatic seasonal adjustment from -2.9% actual YoY drop in sales).

“Adjusted” Sales and Inventories…

 

Driven by a huge seasonal adjustment…

 

Which leaves the inventory overhang ominously high still…

 

This won’t end well.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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