FXStreet (Barcelona) – Previewing the Canadian data releases ahead, the TD Securities Team expects the core CPI to inch higher to 0.4%mom and Retail sales to see an above consensus expectations result at 1.0%mom increase in April.
Key Quotes
“Higher gasoline prices and seasonal influences are expected to drive a 0.5% m/m increase in the non-seasonally adjusted CPI in May (market: +0.5% m/m).”
“Core prices are expected to be a touch more subdued at 0.4% m/m which is stronger than the market consensus at 0.3% m/m.”
“Headline inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.8% y/y but we see an upside risk to core inflation at 2.2% versus the market at 2.1%.”
“Retail sales will also be released where we see an upside surprise to the market in forecasting a 1.0% m/m increase in April (market: +0.7% m/m). The ex-autos metric is expected to be a bit more sluggish, rising by 0.4% m/m (market: +0.3% m/m). Retail volumes will trail the nominal increase but are consistent with industry-level real GDP in the ballpark of 0.2-0.3%.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)