FXStreet (Bali) – Jonathan Thomas, Senior Economist at Lloyds Bank, takes a look at the current state of affairs in China, exploring whether or not, in his view, China growth concerns are overdone.
Key Quotes
“Despite relatively upbeat Chinese December external trade data, global equity markets, benchmark bond yields and oil prices have continued to falter.”
“One reason for the limited impact of the positive export news was the concern that it may have simply reflected the passthrough from the depreciation of the yuan since August, rather than strengthened global demand.”
“Nonetheless, the accompanying less-than-expected drop in imports chimes with the view that China’s internal growth dynamics may have firmed towards the end of last year, possibly in response to stimulus measures already undertaken.”
“In any case, Chinese December data on industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales, as well as Q4 GDP (all Tue), will provide a further steer on the outlook for activity.”
“However, it may take a prolonged run of positive surprises to dent the current bout of strong risk-off sentiment.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)