China customs will release March trade data on 13 April. Export growth is expected to have slowed to 8.8% y/y in March from 48.3% in February, which was boosted by the low base last year. The external demand remained lacklustre, as reflected in the manufacturing PMI’s weak export orders sub-index reading. The strength of the Chinese yuan’s trade-weighted index probably also weighed on export growth. “We expect imports to have contracted by 10.7% y/y in March. The deficit likely narrowed from February’s 20.5%, but stayed weak due to sluggish domestic demand, a decline in commodity financing, and low global commodity prices. We estimate that the trade surplus narrowed to USD 40bn in March, from USD 60.6bn in February” says Standard Chartered.
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