The Conference Board's consumer confidence measure has hovered around the 95 level for the last 6 months (as gas prices dipped and ripped, as stock prices dipped and ripped, and as political chaos reigned). This 'stability' is in stark contrast to other surveys of confidence such as Bloomberg's and Gallup's which are both at multi-month lows… until today. Consumer Confidence plunged to 92.6 (missing expectations of 96.1 by the most since November). May's dismal print (a 3 sigma miss) is below the lowest of 68 economist estimates as expectations slipped modestly but Present Situation tumbled with optimism on jobs sliding to 6-month lows.
Finally, government confidence data declines to other survey's realities…
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions weakened in May. The percentage stating business conditions are “good” improved from 24.2 percent to 25.9 percent. However, those saying business conditions are “bad” also increased, from 18.2 percent to 21.6 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was less favorable. The proportion claiming jobs are “plentiful” was virtually unchanged at 24.3 percent, however those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased from 22.8 percent to 24.4 percent.
Consumers were less optimistic about the short-term outlook than last month. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 13.8 percent to 15.1 percent, but those expecting business conditions to worsen also rose, from 10.8 percent to 11.6 percent.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was less favorable. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead was virtually unchanged at 12.8 percent, but those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 16.7 percent to 18.1 percent.
“Consumer confidence declined slightly in May, primarily due to consumers rating current conditions less favorably than in April,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.
“Expectations declined further, as consumers remain cautious about the outlook for business and labor market conditions. Thus, they continue to expect little change in economic activity in the months ahead.”
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