looking at the “quant” side. You can see exactly what happens after futures expiry because I’ve drawn white verticals on the chart to mark the two which matter to me.

So what’s to worry about? Well bar an escalation in Global tensions (worse case scenario could blast bitcoin             into the stratosphere etc..), looking at my chart what would make my eyes pop is if the signal line did not keep going up, or, the market made a lower low than $7,374 made July 23rd. That’s when both the Histogram and MACD went down together (indicated by purple verticals in each). Alternatively, could use the one from my previous post $7,333.1 . I’ve also extended a green trend line which connected November 12th 2017 low with Febuary 6th             low that neatly runs through a support and resistance zone that mattered to me.

So what’s the positive? Well I’ve marked it with a green box with yellow border which can be compared with the previous two others which matter to me. This took a tough bit of thinking. No an easy task using pure obsevation, and my kind of chart work. If support levels can hold then most people will already have worked out by simpler less mind boggling methods that there is a good chance of a double top like on previous occassions. I’m extending a little higher because I don’t see any consecutive fractal highs or lows yet. That doesn’t mean to say they need to happen.

Hopefully the next zoned box that I’ll be creating will be the one I make using the volatility on the first day of the month, and most likely in between the high and low of the green box.

Yesterdays 26th July close was quite easy to predict as the previous day the Histogram had turned lower (green vertical) and the MACD was most likely to be next taking the price with it (green vertical). I had expected both to happen same day.

I’m going to stay long unless my support points are threatened, and need review.

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

See earlier posting for more on coloured boxes and verticals.

Key for my analysis. I’ve boxed in last 11 days of month from end Dec 2017. I’m only interested in the blue verticals on chart plus in the Histogram I have boxed in a series of 7 verticals (green, purple, green, purple, green, purple, green). We have seen a blue vertical and a green vertical so far in the Histogram both on July 20th. There could therefore be three purple verticals to follow plus another three in green. The first series ended 5th March, and the second 6th             May so I’ve created a box in the Histogram extending to 6th             August.

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

Note my MACD settings are:-

Fast Length 6
Slow Length 13
Source: Close
Signal Smoothing 31

Default settings Trading View are:

Fast Length 12
Slow Length 26
Source: Close
Signal Smoothing 9

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.