Confirming The Conference Board’s earlier disappointment, it appears the American public is chock-full of “cynics” and “fiction-peddlers” as Gallup reports Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy reached its lowest weekly level so far in 2016.
The latest figure represents a four-point drop from the previous week’s average. The last time Gallup found a lower weekly score was in August 2015.
The latest figure is not markedly lower than the -11 weekly index score average recorded so far in 2016, but it is part of a decline that started in late March. Pessimism has increased despite a strong stock market in recent weeks and a persistent low unemployment rate. However, there have been reports of weak retail sales and expectations of low first quarter economic growth. Gas prices have also started to rise, although they remain well below where they were for most of the past decade. Finally, consistent statements from presidential candidates about how they would fix the U.S. economy if elected might play a part in keeping Americans’ economic optimism at lower levels.
One year ago, Americans were significantly more upbeat about the economy, as the index flirted with positive territory. But recent scores are still higher than most of the low figures Gallup recorded between 2008 and the fall of 2012.
Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they feel the economy is improving or getting worse.
And as the following chart shows, it is “hope” that is collapsing…
35% of U.S. adults saying the economy is “getting better” and 60% saying it is “getting worse.”
This is the lowest score for this component since late August 2015, when the stock market plummeted over concerns about the Chinese economy.
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