- The euro area economy outperformed both the US and the UK in Q1, but today’s releases may provide further evidence that business sentiment is easing in the current quarter. The preliminary ‘flash’ PMI reports for both manufacturing and services in France, Germany and the euro area as a wholewill be published. According to Lloyds Bank, a small declines in both the manufacturing and services surveys for the euro area to 51.8 and 53.9, respectively, in May which are in line with consensus forecasts. Even if the predicted falls occur, the series would remain above the key 50 level which separates growth and recession. Preliminary euro area consumer confidence for May and minutes of ECB meeting on 15 April will also be released.
- Domestically, official April retail sales will be the key data event. The BRC retail sales report for April was very weak, but it was probably affected by the timing of Easter because the data are not seasonally adjusted. For the ONS release, on the other hand, Analysts look for a 0.7% rebound in headline retail sales and a 0.5% rise for underlying sales excluding fuel, added Lloyds Bank. In the US, the most important release is the Philadelphia Fed survey, which will be watched for signs of recovery in the industrial sector, following a weak Q1. A second consecutive monthly rise is expected to 8.5 in May.
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