MARKET PULSE
FOMC : Didn’t consider conditions for a rate hike (1st in9 years) conducive
FOMC : Fed’s 2.0% inflation target was still far (headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m July)
Funds added USD longs for an 8th week, the longest stretch since 2010.
USD Spot Index, fell as much as 0.1 % and was flat today at 1,208.42
US Rate Hike Probability : 38 % hike on Sept. 16-17 meeting vs 54% on Aug 7th
Funds increased net long USD positions to 437,635 contracts in the week ended Aug. 11
EU FMs signed off on bailout program for Greece of as much as 86b euros ($95b)
Time is running out for Ukraine to cut deal with holders of its $19b debt
The physical demand in Gold has risen , delivery premiums at a 6 months high
Indian Billionaires Ambani, Birla win non-lending bank permits
Credit Agricole: INR should continue to depreciate against USD in coming weeks
Credit Agricole : India July CPI and WPI inflation data makes it likely for a rate cut Sep.
INR
MARKETS
INR rises 0.1% to 65.2075 per USD
1-month implied volatility rises 1 bp at 7.7225%; avg. for past 12M. is 6.6882%
INR 1-month forwards gain 0.1% to 65.54 per USD
USD/INR Pivot point at 65.2646
USD/INR support at 65.1217, 64.9696, and 64.6746
USD/INR resistance at 65.4167, 65.5596 and 65.8546
USD/INR MACD above signal line, both rising
FACTORS
Indian Billionaires Ambani, Birla win non-lending bank permits
Global investors added net $3m of Indian stocks in two days to Aug. 18
India’s leading stock index Sensex gained 0.4% yesterday
RBI Governor Rajan at conference in Mumbai at 9:15am
Credit Agricole: INR should continue to depreciate against USD in coming weeks
Credit Agricole : India July CPI and WPI inflation data makes it likely for a rate cut Sep.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The USD fell against the EUR for a second day
USD/JPY +0.11% at 123.93 (range 123.79-123.99)
EUR/USD +0.13% at 1.1134 (range 1.1115-1.1149)
AUD/USD +0.05% at 0.7352 (range 0.7342-0.7373)
USD/CAD -0.11% at 1.3114 (range 1.3100-1.3129)
GBP/USD +0.01% at 1.5682 (range 1.5676-1.5702)
USD/CHF +0.04% at 0.9660 (range 0.9639-0.9663)
FACTORS
FOMC : Didn’t consider conditions for a rate hike (1st in9 years) conducive
FOMC : Fed’s 2.0% inflation target was still far (headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m July)
Funds added USD longs for an 8th week, the longest stretch since 2010.
USD Spot Index, fell as much as 0.1 % and was flat today at 1,208.42
US Rate Hike Probability : 38 % hike on Sept. 16-17 meeting vs 54% on Aug 7th
Funds increased net long USD positions to 437,635 contracts in the week ended Aug. 11
EU FMs signed off on bailout program for Greece of as much as 86b euros ($95b)
Time is running out for Ukraine to cut deal with holders of its $19b debt
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot rose 0.5 % to $1,139.59 (July 17 High) and traded at $1,138.26 in Asia
Gold rose 1.5 % on Wednesday
Gold futures Dec. up 1 % to $1,138.90 (July 17 High) , extending Wednesday’s 1 % gain
China: Gold 1.4 % to 234.93 CNY/ gram on SGE, up for a 4th day
Silver spot added 0.4 % to $15.3857 after surging 3 % on Wed.
FACTORS
Bets eased on a U.S. interest rate increase in Sep -38% now vs. 54% on Aug 7th
Fed officials said they want more indication on the labor market and higher inflation
The physical demand in Gold has risen , delivery premiums at a 6 months high
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