For the 19th week in a row, it appears low oil prices are not “unequivocally good” for the Dallas Fed region. Despite surging from -18.3 to -1.8 (beating expectations by 3 standard deviations) we note that wages tumbled on the month (to lowest since Sept 2013), as did prices received. The biggest driver of the bounce appears to be ‘hope’ about the future new orders growth rate (20.3 to 34.7)

Dallas Fed bounced to its highest since Dec 2014… but remains in contraction

 

As Wages drop to Sept 2013 lows…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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