Australian Dollar
Expected Range 0.7620 – 0.7720
In another positive week for the local currency, the Australian dollar traded as high as 0.7722 when valued against its US Counterpart, a move which was overall supported by a positive risk flows. Whilst conservative rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve also well and truly kept the dollar bulls intact, a softer Greenback has certainly allowed the Aussie to flourish over the past four weeks, an environment conducive to some of the highest levels we’ve witnessed in almost one year. Continuing the focus on Central Bank activity over the coming days, monetary policy considerations will once again be front and centre this week ahead of the RBA which delivers its monthly policy announcement tomorrow before the release of FOMC minutes from its March meeting on Wednesday. Opening this morning marginally stronger at a rate of 0.7672 retail sales data and building approvals today will be on hand to drive near-term direction.
New Zealand Dollar
Expected Range 0.6860 – 0.6940
Opening this morning a long way from its weekly low, the New Zealand dollar remained well supported during the back of last week trading as high as 0.6937 on Friday when valued against its US Counterpart. In light of US employment data which failed to shift US rate expectations, views that Janet Yellen will continue to favour a cautious approach to raising interest rates has helped the Kiwi maintain its elevated level. In the context of an economic calendar which is looking rather thin during the early parts of this week, investors will need to wait until Wednesday to receive any type of support as the New Zealand dollar opens slightly lower this morning at a rate of 0.6897.
Great British Pound
Expected Range 1.8470 – 1.8570
Proving to be a choppy week of trade, the Great British Pound briefly touched a high of 1.4459 when valued against its US Counterpart, giving up those gains however later in the piece. Retracing earlier levels, the Sterling lost more than one full US Cent on Friday after data showed the manufacturing sector had registered one its weakest performances of the past three years. In light of a PMI read of 51 which was only a tick above February’s 34 month low 51.6, the challenges which lie ahead for the BOE remain significant. Opening this morning lower across the board, the Sterling has lost a great deal of ground when valued against the Greenback (1.4220), the Aussie (1.8519) and the Kiwi (2.0580).
Majors
Expected Range N/A
Having climbed as much as 0.6 percent, the US dollar Spot Index opens the new week in a relatively neutral position highlighting the reluctance of investors towards reigniting a fresh upward trend. In a week dominated by a cautious sounding US Federal Reserve, policy makers have once again voiced their concerns over the global backdrop ahead of any domestic worries. In a session dominated by several key data prints on Friday, US employers added 215 000 new jobs during the month of February amid further signs labour market improvement. Whilst the number was not strong enough to keep the benchmark unemployment rate steady at 4.9 percent, the rise to 5 percent was attributed to the fact a greater number of people began looking for work. In what also bolds well for the inflationary picture, average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, a number which exceeded the consensus forecast. Maintaining its neutral stance as we head into the new week, broader measures of volatility and liquidity have dropped off notably over the past month, further harvesting a dormant US dollar outlook. In other moves on the Friday the 17-nation euro currency opens stronger at 1.1390 whilst the Yen is weaker at 111.590