The Federal Reserve Board’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen has often tried to prevent over-interpretation of the movements of the dots. At the latest press conference, she said that Fed decisions on key interest rates would be determined by how the economy develops.Monetary policy decisions will thus not be determined by the dots. Stronger growth or higher-than-expected inflation would lead to a higher and steeper interest rate path, while a lower and flatter path should be expected with weaker growth.Markets expectations are for interest rates to rise “gradually”, this view was strengthened by Yellen who voiced the expectation at the press conference that key interest rates would be raised only “gradually”. “Yellen stressed several times that the US central bank would raise key interest rates “gradually” and FOMC members have again lowered their projection of the key interest rate path. However, this does not necessarily guarantee a soft approach. Instead, monetary policy will depend on the data. Furthermore, market players should not bet on a repeat of the completely foreseeable rate hikes of 2004-06.” notes Commerzbank in its report on FridayBased on the dot plot, the Fed leadership team expects a pace of about 100 bps a year (they see the key interest rate at 0.625% at the end of 2015, 1.625% at the end of 2016 and 2.875% at the end of 2017). Compared to the last rate hike phase after 2004, this would be a rise at half the pace; rates were lifted then by 200 bps a year.However, neither the expectation of “gradual” increases nor the FOMC’s opinion on the appropriate level of the federal funds rate says anything about the peak level of the coming rates hike process. The prevailing opinion in the Fed is likely to be – the same as nearly all market observers – that the future peak should be well below previous highs. This was 5¼% in 2006 and 2007 and as much as 6½% in 2000. Yellen’s statements do little to clarify that, though.“The US economy could be affected by a new shock, which would led them to stop the rate hikes. On the other hand, inflation could rise above the 2% mark if the economy were to expand at a stronger rate than economic capacity. In this case, a rate peak of above 3¾% would have to be expected.” adds Commerzbank in its report on FridayTraders favour the greenback ahead of Fed Yellen’s speech today at 1630 GMT. However, the upside remains capped as dollar weakend across the board after downbeat US weekly jobless claims data yesterday. Yellen’s speech might pass by unnoticed against the current backdrop of Greek headlines. EUR/USD is advancing more than 1% today propped up by the now increasing optimism on a potential Greece deal. USD/JPY trades 0.64% higher at 122.12.
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