Market Roundup
- German bund sell-off lifted euro towards 2-mth high vs dollar.
- EUR/USD plays 1.1175/1.1271, eases to 1.1203.
- Dollar index off Tues 1 wk high at 95.946, plays 94.567 fm 95.216 today.
- UK better than exp PMI reading helps struggling sterling.
- Greece makes 200 mln euro IMF payment due Wednesday – sources.
- ECB set to decide on increasing Greek bank lifeline.
- Euro Zone March Retail sales -0.8% m/m, 1.6% y/y vs previous -0.2%/3.0%. -0.7%/2.4% exp.
- Euro Zone April Markit Comp final PMI 53.9 vs previous 53.5. 53.5 exp.
- Euro Zone April Markit Services final PMI 54.1 vs previous 53.7. 53.7 exp.
- UK April Markit/CIPS Serv PMI 59.5 vs previous 58.9. 58.5 exp.
- Germany Final Apr composite PMI 54.1 vs 54.2 flash, 55.4 Mar.
- New Zealand Interest rate suggest 28% chance 25bp RBNZ cut to 3.25% Jun 11.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0800 EDT/1200 GMT) US MBA Weekly Mortage Application Indices.
- (0915 EDT/1315 GMT) US ADP National Employment Report (Apr) mkt 200k, previous 189k.
- (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) US Productivity (Q1) (mkt -1.8% q/q AR, previous -2.2% q/q AR.
- (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) US Unit Labor Costs (Q1) mkt +4.4% q/q AR, previous +4.1% q/q AR.
- (1100 EDT/1530 GMT) EIA Weekly Petroleum Statistics crude oil inventories forecast to rise 1.6 MB.
Key Events Ahead
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) Dep Tsy Sec’y Raskin spks on small/disadvantaged business utilization.
- (1015 EDT/1415 GMT) Fed Chair Yellen/ IMF M.D Lagarde participate in “Finance & Society” conf.
- (1145 EDT/1545 GMT) FedTrade Operation 30-year Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (max $1.950 bln.
- (1415 EDT/1815 GMT) FRB Kansas City’s George on IMF panel.
- (1430 EDT/1830 GMT) FRB Atlanta’s Lockhart on the economy; Baton Rouge, LA.
- (1700 EDT/2100 GMT) Deputy Tsy Sec’y Raskin in FT interview.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1217 levels and made high of 1.1270 so far. Spain, Italy, France and Euro zone PMI data came with positive numbers while German PMI and Euro zone Retail sales data released below consensus forecast. Near term support is at 1.1070 and 1.0958 levels. On the top side, resistance is seen at 1.1274 and 1.1290. Option expiries are at 1.1150-60 (700M), 1.1250 (305M), 1.1300 (850M).USD/JPY is trading in a narrow range and falls below 120.00 levels. It is currently trading at 119.82 levels and made low of 119.64. Japanese banks remain close today as well. Today is data free session for JPY but US will release ADP Job data. Initial support is seen at 119.47 and resistance is seen at 120.69 levels. Option expiries are at 120.50 (653M), 121.00 (696M).GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5195 levels and made a high of 1.5241. UK Service PMI data came with positive numbers as well 59.5 vs 58.5 f/c, highest since Aug 2014. Service sector is dominant segment of UK economy. The pair dropped to 1.5149 bids ahead of the data release. Initial support and resistance is seen at 1.5088/ 1.5241 levels. Option expiries are at 1.5100 (209M), 1.5170 (253M).USD/CHF trades around 0.9227 levels and it made intraday high at 0.9278 and low at 0.9211. Today is data free session for CHF, now market awaits US ADP Job data as well as Fed Chair Yellen speech. On the top side, resistance is seen at 0.9387 and support around 1.9194 levels.AUD/USD is trading nearby 0.7978 and made intraday high of 0.7986 levels. Rally has stalled just shy of 0.8000. Short stop is at 0.8010. Resistance is seen at 0.8022 Apr 30 high and Supported by the tenkan line at 0.7921 on the day charts. AUD shorts frustrated by no reaction to RBA cut and softer Australia Retail Sales data released today. Option expiries are at 0.7900 (405M). NZD/USD: 0.7525 (228M).
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