Market Roundup
- Dollar index sinks to lowest level since Jan at 93.175.
- EUR/USD through 1.1400 before easing plays 1.1340/1.1435.
- GBP/USD makes 6 month high at 1.5811.
- NZD up on retail sales number o/n. 0.7564 high in London.
- Nordic holidays/thin conditions see SEK and NOK fall hard.
- UK April RICS housing survey +33 vs previous +22 revised. 22 expected.
- NZ Q1 retail sales +2.7% q/q, biggest gain ever, +5.1% y/y, +1.5%/+4.9% is expected.
- Greek Finmin: Greece’s repayment of debt to ECB after Jul/Aug should be pushed bank.
- BOE Carney: Companies say not halting investments, hiring due to concerns over EU referendum.
- Carney: Sterling strength is a bit of a dampener on growth.
- BSP holds overnight borrowing rate steady at 4.0 pct.
- China April Fiscal Revenues +8.2 pct yr/yr – Finance Ministry.
- China April Fiscal Expenditures +33.2 pct yr/yr – Finance Ministry.
- Irish April CPI 0 PCT m/m vs +0.6 pct m/m in March.
- Nigeria’s Food Inflation rises to 9.5 percent yr/yr in April, up 0.1 percent from march-statistics office.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Jobless Claims (May 9 week) consensus 275k, previous 265k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Continued Claims (May 2 week) consensus 2.240 mln, previous 2.228 mln.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US PPI Final Demand (April) consensus +0.2% m/m, -0.8% y/y; previous +0.2% m/m, -0.8% y/y.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Core PPI Final Demand (April) consensus +0.1% m/m, +1.1% y/y; previous +0.2% m/m, +0.9% y/y.
Key Events Ahead
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) ECB President Draghi gives Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the IMF.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) BoC semi-annual review.
- (1145 ET/1545 GMT) FedTrade operation 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $1.800 bln).
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) BoE Kohn speech in London.
- (1530 ET/1930 GMT) BoC DepGov Patterson speech in Vancouver.
- N/A Commerce Dep’t issues annual benchmark revisions to factory orders/durable goods.
FX Recap
EUR/USD broke 1.1407 resistance levels and trading at 1.1419 levels. It has made high at 1.1438 levels. USD is depreciated against major pairs after US retail sales data released yesterday with negative numbers and higher German 10-yr yields which stand at 0.727, up nearly 1% on the day. Today is bank holiday in Germany and France. Markets now eye US data releases later today for fresh cues on the main currency pair. 1.1450 is an immediate resistance and if that holds we may see a short dip. Initial support is seen around 1.1341 levels. Options expiries are at 1.1300 (500M), 1.1350 (225M), 1.1400-10 (640M), 1.1440-50 (650M).USD/JPY turns downside after US retail sales data and currently trading at 119.22 levels and made low of 118.88 levels. A daily close below 119.00 levels could drive the pair towards new lows. Today is data free session for Japan. On the top side, the next resistance is located at 120.30 (May 1 High) levels and above which it could extend gains 120.54 (May 5 High) levels. Immediate support might be located at 118.85 levels. Options expiries are at 118.85 (419M), 119.00-10 (1.3BLN), 119.50 (600M), 120.00 (2.7BLN).GBP/USD made a new high at 1.5811 levels and currently trading at 1.5788 levels, largely on the back of UK job data, Inflation report and negative USD sales data.UK released RICS house price balance with positive numbers. There is no other major data from UK. The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5845 above which gains could be extended to 1.5900 levels. On the other side, support is seen at 1.5726. Options expiries are at 1.5570 (202M), EUR/GBP: 0.7255 (200M), 0.7290 (405M).USD/CHF is continuously falling down side, trading around 0.9093 levels and made low at 0.9092 levels. Swiss banks will be closed in observance of Ascension Day. Today is data free session for Switzerland. Near term support is seen at 0.9070 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9227 levels.AUD/USD made intraday high at 0.8162 levels and trading at 0.8088 levels. AUD is performing surprisingly well despite market volatility caused by bond overthrow. It is also benefitting from commodity gain and negative USD retail sales data. Today is no major data schedule for Australia. Markets now eagerly await US PPI and weekly jobless claims due later in a day. Initial support is seen at 0.8033 and resistance at 0.8239 levels. Options expiries are at 0.8075 (217M). NZD/USD: 0.7600 (267M).
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