Market Roundup
- ECB Praet: European currency looks relatively normal in cyclical conditions.
- EU Dombrovskis: Talks should be finished by ‘May or so’.
- Handelsblatt says ECB patience running thin, wants Greek deal byMay 11.
- Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem repeats more progress on Greek talks.
- Greek govt official says deal with creditors very close.
- BoJ Kuroda: Policy aimed at price target not yen, FX may move in process.
- Japan LDP Yamamoto: BOJ should increase asset purchases by Y10T atApr 30Meeting.
- Eurozone Apr Markit Mfg flash PMI 51.9 vs previous 52.2. 52.6 consensus.
- Eurozone Apr Markit Service flash PMI 53.7 vs previous 54.2. 54.5 consensus.
- Eurozone Apr Markit Comp flash PMI 53.5 vs previous 54.0. 54.4 consensus.
- UK Mar PSNB 6.741bln vs previous 4.801bln revised. 7.00bln consensus.
- UK Mar PSNCR 19.444bln vs previous -0.205bln.
- UK Mar retail sales -0.5% m/m, 4.2% y/y vs previous 0.6%/5.4% revised. 0.4%/5.4% consensus.
- Germany May GfK Consumer sentiment 10.1 vs previous 10.0. 10.2 consensus.
- Switzerland Mar Trade 2525mln vs previous 2316mln revised.
- Switzerland exports rise in Mar, CHF effect “less severe” than expected.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Initial Jobless Claims, previous 294k
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Continuing Jobless Claims, previous 2.268 m
- (0945 EDT/1345 GMT) US Markit Manufacturing PMI, previous 55.7
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US New Home Sales mm, consensus 0.523 m, previous 0.539m
- (1100 EDT/1500GMT) US Apr KC Fed composite, mfg indices; previous -4, -2.
Key Events Ahead
- (0800 EDT/1200GMT) Buba Dombret speech in Riga
- (1500 EDT/1900GMT) Senate Finance Committee holds hearings on Treasury nominations (Deputy Under Secretary and CFO)
FX Recap
EUR/USD fell after the release of Eurozone PMIs and subsequently strengthened in the European session erasing all losses. It currently trades at 1.0751 levels, recovering from the lows of 1.0665 levels seen earlier in the day. On the topside, resistance is located at 1.0800 levels, and a break above could push it to 1.0825 (April 21 High) levels. On the downside, support is located at 1.0700 and then at 1.0658 (April 21 Low) levels. Option expiries at 1.0650 (607M), 1.0700 (495M), 1.0735 (600M), 1.0800 (717M).GBP/USD dropped after UK retail sales data and is hovering around 1.50 levels, sliding from 1.5038 levels beforehand. US jobless claims figures scheduled later in the day will provide fresh directions for the pair. The pair has resistance at 1.5050 levels, and a break above could see the pair testing 1.5104 (100-DMA), while support is seen at 1.5 and then at 1.4964 levels. Option expiries at 1.4900 (774M).AUD/USD erased nearly all yesterday’s gains and moved south on Thursday. It currently trades at 0.7714 levels, down from highs of 0.7762 levels hit earlier in the day. It is pressured by weak Chinese HSBC Manufacturing data, along with Australian business confidence which fell to 0 in the first quarter of 2015, from 2 seen in final quarter of 2014. A break below 0.77 levels could push it to 0.7675 levels, which a break above 0.7840 levels, would expose 0.7888 levels and further 0.7938 levels. Option expiries at 0.7700 (608M), 0.7750 (387M), 0.7800 (676M).USD/JPY resumed its upward move and is currently testing highs above 120 handle. Traders are cautious ahead of the release of the U.S. jobless data. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 120.19 (April 14 High) levels and then at 120.45 (April 7 High) levels. On the other hand, support is likely to be found at 119.62 (April 8 Low) below which losses could be extended to 119.54 (5-DMA) levels. Option expiries at 119.35 (410M), 120.00 (690M), 120.50 (350M).USD/CHF could not hold above the 0.9700 levels and turned red on Thursday, dropping to 0.9626 levels before consolidating to 0.9641 levels. The pair has major support at 0.96 levels and a convincing break below could drag it to 0.9550 levels. To the topside, resistance is seen at 0.9712 (50-DMA) levels and a break above would expose 0.9755 (Mar. 31 high) levels. Option expiries at 0.9535 (540M).NZD/USD has been pressured by RBNZ comments and moved downwards on Thursday. The central bank said it is not considering any increase in interest rates. It currently trades at 0.7560 levels. It has formed almost a double top around 0.7738 and retreated from that level. This confirms short term bearishness, a decline till 0.7420 cannot be ruled out. On the downside minor support is around 0.7545 and break below drag the pair further down till 0.7480/0.7420. It is good to sell on rallies around 0.7600 with stop around 0.7680 for the target of 0.7420.
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