Over the past year Polish voters have twice rejected centralist Civic Party incumbents in favor of populist Law and Justice Candidates. The change in government isn’t because of the economy. Poland’s 3.4% 2014 GDP growth was well ahead of 1.3% GDP growth of its fellow EU members. In spite of the economic problems of the EU, the Greek financial crises and a war in neighboring Ukraine, expectations for 2015 remain surprisingly high at 4%. Moody’s rates Polish sovereigns ‘A2’; Fitch AAA; S&P A-. It should be noted that government debt is restricted by constitutional law at 60% of GDP. Poland seems to have a ‘golden economy’.
The Zloty has strengthened versus the Euro over the past six months. On 21 April, EUR/PLN found support at 3.96705 per Euro, the strongest since 3.82855 per Euro in January of 2011. In the same period, resistance was tested at 4.3392 per Euro, the weakest point for the Zloty since 4.5988 per Euro in December of 2010. What makes the Zloty a recent consistent performer versus the Euro?
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