Australian Dollar
Expected Range 0.7580 – 0.7830
The Australian dollar touched a fresh 9 month high against the Greenback through trade on Thursday, breaking through 0.77 to tap lofty intraday levels at 0.7723. In the absence of any meaningful domestic market data the AUD edged lower throughout the Australasian trading session as investors looked to take profit on Wednesday’s rally. The introduction of European and North American markets prompted another round of USD selling and bolstered recent AUD gains forcing the currency back through 0.7650. As markets continued to adjust US monetary policy expectations and the RBA’s policy stance remains neutral there is scope for continued short term strength. Attentions now turn to key Chinese data as a marker for regional risk appetite and U.S employment growth and wage earnings as precursors for consumer led inflation and domestic economic health. A strong read could arrest the recent greenback sell off while a poor print could force the Aussie higher ahead of next week’s RBA rate statement and policy announcement.
New Zealand Dollar
Expected Range 0.6810 – 0.7010
The New Zealand dollar followed its antipodean counterpart higher through trade on Thursday. With little domestic data on hand to drive direction the Kiwi struggled to break outside a 30 point range bouncing between 0.6890 and 0.6920 for much of the Australasian session. The NZD then found renewed support as European markets opened and continued the recent USD selloff. The Kiwi touched overnight highs at 0.6966 before profit taking and month end positioning saw the dollar settle lower into the close. We open this morning buying 0.6913 U.S cents as attentions turn to a critical Chinese manufacturing print and crucial U.S labour market data for direction into the weekend.
Great British Pound
Expected Range 1.8580 – 1.8880
The Great British Pound enjoyed a mixed session on Thursday oscillating about a wider 100 point range. Profit taking throughout the Asian trading session saw Cable slip below 1.4350 to touch session and intraday lows at 1.4324 before renewed US Dollar weakness prompted a rally and run to intraday highs at 1.4425. Recent Brexit fears have been somewhat overshadowed this week by shifting U.S monetary policy expectations allowing the Pound to recoup some of its recent losses and arrest the decline that saw it headed for a move through 1.40. Attentions today turn to key domestic Manufacturing data while U.S employment and wage growth dominate the wider macroeconomic docket.
Majors
Expected Range N/A
The U.S. Dollar sell off continued through trade on Thursday as the worlds base currency prepares to record its worst quarterly performance and largest quarterly loss in more than five years. The U.S dollar index touched 5 month lows Thursday marking a 3 month depreciation of more than 4%. Investors pared positions leading into month’s end as the fallout from Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s mid-week address lingers. Markets are continuing to push back expectations surrounding the next FOMC and Federal Reserve interest rate hike closing the gap in monetary policy expectations. Attentions now turn to Friday’s all important labour market data. A strong read could help stabilised expectations for consumer led growth while an increase in average hourly earnings may prompt optimism across inflation expectations and promote renewed hope of imminent FOMC monetary policy action. The Yen and the Euro remain well bid in the face of recent USD weakness buying 112.55 and 1.1380 respectively at time of writing.