It’s been a bright start to trading on Monday with investors buoyed by Hillary Clinton once again being cleared by the FBI in the email scandal, an announcement that could play a significant role in the election result.
Clinton’s substantial lead was shattered 10 days ago when the FBI reopened its investigation into her emails, paving the way for Donald Trump to re-enter a race that had appeared to have moved beyond him. Sunday’s announcement may have once again reopened that lead although I imagine some lingering damage will remain which is why investors continue to ease on the side of caution, as seen by the fact that previous losses haven’t been immediately reversed.
USD/JPY – Yen Loses Ground as FBI Clears Clinton
With Clinton stealing back the momentum 48 hours before the election, we may see risk appetite remain positive heading into the vote. The Trump hedge has been partially unwound this morning, with Gold slipping more than 1% from around $1,300, where it last week ran into resistance. We could see this head back towards $1,250 in the coming days, possibly even further in the event of a Clinton victory given what that would mean for both risk appetite and US interest rates.
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The improved risk appetite is also providing a boost for oil prices at the start of the week, which looks set to end a six session losing streak. While we could see some reprieve in the short term, a little more downside could be on the cards going forward, with WTI possibly falling back to $42 if $44 support is broken and Brent potentially heading back towards $43. That said, it is worth considering that oil is now around 15% off its October highs so may be looking a little overextended to the downside.
Strap In, Capital Markets Are In For A Wild Ride
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
