Feb 15th 2016: China Return Makes It’s Mark

• This morning, China has returned from public holiday with a bang, as January exports and imports fell more than expected. Japan also set up an intriguing session after GDP dropped by 0.4%. However, in a ‘good news is bad news’ move the Nikkei has soared this morning as traders bet on the prospect of more Quantitative Easing in the region. The move has not had the same effect on currency markets however, with early moves relatively muted in comparison to equities. The US dollar index is down slightly in early training.

• Oil has seen the biggest move so far this morning as crude prices rocket higher on the prospect of more QE in Asia.

• By contrast, gold is slipping back as this morning’s moves counter some of the ‘risk off’ them driving gold prices higher. 
• Australasian pairs are pushing higher on the prospect of renewed stimulation in Asia.

• Meanwhile, the euro is under performing just as it out performed during the last few weeks of turmoil.

Coming up today: 

• Coming up today we have ECB president Draghi speaking at 14.00.
• It is also a US bank holiday for Presidents day.

Trade Idea: 

• The euro’s recent out-performance has been curious given that European fundamentals have changed little. This morning’s correction could therefore have further to run.

• A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/USD closes below 1.1150 in 15 days for a potential return of 151%.

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