Feb 17th 2016: Oil Hammered by New Saudi Deal

• This morning, markets are still reacting to the proposed Saudi-Russia oil production deal which could see output paused at January levels. This is stilling pending other groups joining this agreement, but it was enough to spook markets and provide more volatility across markets.

• The US dollar is unchanged this morning after a third straight day of gains yesterday.

• The yen is still struggling however after the BoJ’s move deeper into negative rates.

• Australasian currencies are on the back foot as commodities come off the boil.

• Finally, the British pound continues to struggle after RPI and core CPI came in below estimates yesterday.

Coming up today: 

• Today we have UK average earnings at 09.30, released alongside claimant count change and the unemployment rate.
• US building permits then follow at 13.30, released alongside PPI and housing starts. The capacity utilisation rate follows at 14.15 alongside industrial production.
• Then we have the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting at 19.00.
• New Zealand PPI input is released at 21.45.

Trade Idea: 

• The British pound has been on the back foot of late as lower oil prices drive inflation lower. At the same time, the domestic economy is hardly going gangbusters. Add the uncertainty surrounding a possible ‘Brexit’ and you have many reasons for caution around the GBP/USD.

• A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the GBP/USD will close below 1.4200 in 21 days for a potential return of 153%.

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