FXStreet (Guatemala) – Signe Roed-Frederiksen, analyst at Danske Bank noted the miss in the Nonfarm Payrolls report from the US today but sheds a positive light on the outlook for the US economy, although sites caution around Greece.
Key Quotes:
“Recent US data has generally supported our view that US growth should pick up in the current and coming quarters. If our forecast is right, this should support job growth at an above 200,000 average in coming months, push the unemployment rate lower and put upward pressure on wages. Notably, our US wage indicator continue to suggest a substantial pickup in wage inflation in coming months.”
“The three-month average in private payrolls is now at 221,000 and in itself, the June employment report leaves the door open for a first rate hike in September.”
“The big unknown is how Greece will develop and if financial conditions worsen over the Summer this is likely to postpone a first rate hike. In addition, the drop in the growth pace of average hourly earnings also takes some pressure off the Fed, but these data are volatile and we could easily see a rebound in July.”
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